Thursday, June 29, 2006

Ixtapa - Zihuatanejo

Well, the trip went very well. I wish I had a bit more time to do more during the trip, because I ended up pursuing a PADI Open Water Diver certification. Getting certified took a lot of time and was a major commitment given the relatively short vacation. Anyway, we'll get to that later.

Okay, I guess I might as well do this in chronological order.


Tuesday

So, we did end up going to House of Nanking for dinner, and we did have to wait for quite some time before we were allowed to enter the restaurant and be seated. Anyway, we finished dinner around 9pm, and we found ourselves at a New Orleans-style jazz bar where we had a couple of drinks before we headed off to the airport.

We parked over at my favorite off-airport long-term parking facility, Anza Park and Sky. If you ever use long-term parking, be sure to check out LongTermParking.com... it's really a great place to get online coupons. Parking for 6 full days cost me just under $60 with their $9.50 per day coupon.

Anyway, back to the story... well, I guess it's technically Wednesday now.


Wednesday

Our 3-legged flight from San Francisco to Houston to Mexico City to Zihuatanejo was on-time and departed at 12:40am. Having gotten very little sleep the night before, I promptly fell asleep. When we get to Houston, we grabbed some breakfast and basically waited around doing nothing, but being tired and grumpy travellers. Finally, we're off the Mexico City, where we had a difficult time trying to figure out where we needed to be to catch the flight to our final destination. Apparently, many flights at the Mexico City airport are not assigned gates until an hour before departure. That really confused the hell out of us.

Ok, we finally get word of the gate, and we arrive there and get on the plane. But, all is not right... where are Mr. and Mrs. GZA of 12th Street? The four of us were supposed to share this leg of the trip, and we were supposed to get our pre-party drink on. Didn't happen. Turns out their flight out of LAX was delayed and they missed the connection. Bummer. So, QB and I end up at Zihuatanejo without Mr. and Mrs. 12th Street.

After landing, we catch a cab to the Barceló Ixtapa Beach Hotel. It was around 3 o'clock when we chekced in. The hotel is very nice... not 5-star nice, but a solid 4 stars. All of us purchased the all-inclusive package, and so everything was covered. This included all of our meals and all alcoholic drinks (no top-shelf stuff, but it was alright), along with all the regular stuff you'd get with any hotel room. All of us ended up with an ocean view rooms, which was definitely a nice bonus.

Here are two shots from the hotel room balcony.





So, after checking out the view, we head down to the pool area to get some drinks. Mr. and Mrs. Spud found the two of us, and we exchanged tales about our long flights. They arrived at the hotel a couple of hours before we did, and they started their journey at 1:30am.

That afternoon, we lounged around by the pool and beach for the most part. The water was ridiculously warm. Might as well have been swimming in a bathtub. Not refreshing at all. The beach, however, was awesome. The water was the perfect temperature, really. Eventually, we made our way back to our rooms, and it was then that I received a call from the GZA, who went on to explain everything.

That first night, we all ate a special hotel dinner while watching a Mexican dance show on a stage. The food was definitely decent, considering it was all included in our package and was buffet-style. And, since we're all such smart people, we figured out the secret to getting strong drinks at an all-inclusive place... you simply order a mixed drink along with shots of hard liquor of your choice.

We also kicked it at the hotel bar, which was the closest thing to a club at the hotel. It had a dance floor and everything. And, they had great servers that really knew how to take care of their customers. Also, one other thing... this particular bar was air-conditioned. It was extremely hot and humid in Ixtapa... full of mosquitoes too.


Thursday

In the morning, Spud and I went down for some breakfast, and then off to the Aqua Paradise dive shop at the hotel. Spud loves diving... he's been talking about diving for quite some time now. And, before our trip, I had more or less promised I'd do a scuba diving program with him. Had I known how much time and effort would have been required beforehand, there's no way I would have agreed to it. Though, in hindsight, I'm really glad I went through with it.

We were then given a scuba diving manual and asked to read it before our first lesson, which would take place at 4pm on Friday. We had to do all this reading, because on top of completing chapter tests that get sent to the PADI organization, we'd also be given 4 quizzes followed by a final exam to obtain our cerficates.

Once we had all of that taken care of, it was time to relax on the beach. The beach was awesome, and all of us were mostly just relaxing and doing some reading, attempting to solve Sudokus, or getting a tan. The GZA went parasailing, also.

Here's the GZA up in the air. You can barely see him, but I assure you that it's him.



Unfortunately, the beach fun did not last. Mrs. Spud, the QB, and I went out into the water at some point that afternoon. I swam out sort of far to float around and do some swimming, and Mrs. Spud and QB were closer to shore jumping waves and enjoying the water's coolness. Then, I spot this pretty large wave break right on them and wipe them out. Mrs. Spud recovers, but QB is nowhere to be seen. I get really worried and start swimming towards shore, when a few seconds later QB gets up from her spill. But, something's not right, as I see Mrs. Spud rush off with her out of the water.

I make it to shore and catch up with them halfway to the hotel. And, QB's face is completely bloodied from what appears to be a broken nose. Man, I was really feeling bad. The swelling was severe, and blood was everywhere. We head off the the 24-hour First Aid center inside the hotel, and a doctor is on standby and checks her out. He was surprised that there was not a broken nose after all, just an incredible amount of swelling. He prescribed some anti-inflammatory medicine, and asked us to get X-Rays the next morning, just in case.

The hotel staff was able to secure the medication and deliver it to our room. We planned on taking the night off for the most part due to the injury. But, QB's a trooper who really wanted to go down and have fun with everyone else. So, we did. We all had a lot of good laughs. Mostly talking about old shit and funny stuff that's happened in our lives. The GZA and Mrs. GZA got their dance floor groove on that night, as did Spud and his wife. I was exempt, and decided to have a ton of pina coladas instead. Note to self: Do not go overboard on pina coladas, especially if you've also had way too much fresh fruit that same day. We won't be getting into any details about that, but you can use your imagination.


Friday

Woke up early, and headed to Zihuatanejo to get X-Rays done on QB's face. Good news... no fractures. So, we headed back to the hotel for another day of eating, drinking, and lounging around.

At 4pm, Spud and I head to the dive shop and get ready for our lessons. But, before we can begin, the instructor had use fulfill the PADI swimming requirement. We had to swim laps adding up to roughly an eighth of a mile (in the uncomfortably warm swimming pool, I might add). Following the swim, we had to float in the water for 10 minutes. The swim really shouldn't have been too tough, but man I'm getting out of shape. And, the uncomfortable temperature of the water surely did not help. The float kind of sucked, because I'm so used to floating in saltwater, which is way easier.

After the swim test, we learned all about the equipment used for scuba diving and how to put everything together. We were then ready for our confined water dive. We put on all our scuba gear and did the scuba thing in the swimming pool. Not much to see down there except for fat and hairy legs and the occasional set of sexy ones. This confined dive also included practice of many of the skills required for certification. In order to get certified, you need to show competency in a number of skills during an ocean dive ranging from flushing out water-filled goggles to performing an emergency ascent to towing an exhausted diver on the water's surface. The confined dive and all the associated training took nearly four hours!

QB was sitting by the pool waiting for me to hurry up, since we were both very late to a dinner engagement with the Mr. and Mrs. GZA. So, anyway, after this first lesson, I rushed upstairs and got changed. We were off to a 'restaurant' called La Sirena Gorda (The Fat Mermaid) that GZA's cousin had recommended from when she had traveled to Ixtapa. I put restaurant in quotes, because it's much more like a bar. The food was quite good though... no complaints. I had octopus tacos, and the QB had a whole snapper. I can't recall what the 12th street clan had, but I do remember it looked good. Oh ya, the guacamole dip was excellent.

After the meal, we checked out the gift shop. Mrs. GZA bought a nice pair of earrings and also a gift for a friend. We ended up buying nothing, because we're cheap bastards. No, actually, QB was gonna buy something, but changed her mind for some reason. The GZA and I are guys, and it goes without saying that we don't really shop.

After we got back to the hotel, it was more of the same... drinking and relaxing at the hotel bar. Not for me though. I had maybe only one more beer at the bar that night, since I'd have to be up early the next morning to go dive in the real ocean.


Saturday

I get up bright and early and grab a very light breakfast. Spud had mostly finished his meal by the time I started eating. That breakfast that Spud had might have played a role in the events that were to unfold.

After we ate, we are sent to the pier to meet up with our instructor to begin our real ocean dives. We need to complete four of these for the certification. As we head out, Spud is getting noticeably seasick. A very bad sign considering he had taken Dramamine, a Pfizer (PFE) Consumer Healthcare product. Well, we started our first dive, and within a few minutes Spud is really not feeling well and had to return to the boat. It was a sad hour in Ixtapa.

So, after I finished the dive and proved my competency in a few skills, we headed back to the pier and dropped Spud off. At least he did not puke, and for that we salute Spud, Mr. I-Got-Seasick-But-Held-It-In-Like-A-Man, a real American Hero.

After we dropped him off, the instructor and I headed back out for my second dive. It was a shorter dive, and also shallower. Turns out that you're supposed to do deeper dives first and shallower ones later. That's what I learned anyhow. So, after that dive, we get back to the pier, and I'm glad to see that Spud's doing a lot better.

Before I go on, I gotta say that diving is pretty awesome. There's a ton of crazy shit down there. And, unless you're really familiar with ocean life, there are a ton of misconceptions. Like, I got to actually play around with an octopus and a blown-up puffer fish while I was down there. I had no idea that puffer quills are more like blunt pencils than sharp pins.

While diving, I also got to see a number of different eels and lots of other sea life. Two eels I remember most vividly are the regular moray and the zebra moray. I also got bitten a few times by a Damsel Fish (highly territorial, and one of the bites broke skin). If I actually held grudges, I'd go back there hunt it down and cook it. I also encountered the highly venomous stonefish, which was quickly shoo'd away by the instructor.

After the dive, I hung out at the beach a bit, and then took the final examination, which I passed with an 86%... not a great score, but a fairly efficient one. Perfect efficiency would have had me passing with the bare minimum of 75%. Oh well.

That night, QB and I went to an amazing restaurant with the GZA and his wife. The place was called Villa De La Selva. What a place! What great food. It had the most awesome view, and the food was beyond excellent. We all absolutely loved the food there. It was pricy, but the kind of meal we got would have easily cost us double had it been in San Francisco.

We all had nice appetizers... here's a taste.



The GZA had an arrachera dish. For those who are unfamiliar, arrachera is a special cut of beef that comes from the cow's diaphragm. Here's a look at his lovely dish.



I had an excellent seared tuna dish. Mrs. GZA had a 'surf and turf' dish. And, QB had triple medley of fish. Here are a few more pics of our food, respectively. The food looks much better in person... blame the photographer for the poor quality pictures.







Here's a view from our table...



For dessert, GZA and his wife shared Banana Flambé. And, QB and I opted to skip dessert and have some coffee.


Sunday

Our trip was coming to a close. This was going to be our last full day. I headed off to complete my diving certification. After two more dives and many skill demonstrations later, I was official. I went and got my picture taken, and I'll be expecting a certification card in the mail some time soon. Yay!

On our final night, all of us headed to the Don Quixote restaurant in the hotel. This is our one special restaurant meal that we get with our all-inclusive package. We got to choose an appetizer, a soup, a main dish, and a dessert. I personally thought the meal was great. But, not everyone shares my feelings... that night, Mrs. Spud experienced some sickness. As a result, I'll keep the kudos to myself.

At least I got to drink and party a fair amount that night having no dive to make the next day. We had plenty of beer and tequila... yay, again!


Monday

QB and I get up fairly early to pack and check-out. After doing so, we headed to the stores across the street and did some gift-shopping. I picked up a cool looking bowl for her mother, which she appreciated.

Anyway, we fly back without any real problems, and here I am days later writing this.

Hope you enjoyed the travel log.

Ding-Dong The Inflation Witch Is (Mostly) Dead

For the first time in quite a while, the Fed has hinted that the continual interest rate hikes might be coming to an end. This prompted the market to strongly rally after the Fed's announcement.

This news trumps Ixtapa. OK, OK... I will write about our trip in the next couple of days (with photos!).

For those interested, below is the verbatim text from the Fed announcement.

Verbatim Fed Text

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However, the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.

Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

T Minus 6 1/2 Hours

Well, in less than 7 hours we'll be on a plane heading to Houston, where we'll catch a flight to Mexico. Man, the excitement has definitely been building up... I could hardly sleep last night. That's all for the better anyway, as I want to be dead tired on the overnight flight so I can catch some sleep.

I'm going to be a tourist early for this trip. Tonight is QB's birthday, and so we're going to grab some food at the House of Nanking. It's fast, it's cheap, and while it's non-traditional, it is quite tasty. I've only been there a couple of times, and both times the service pretty much sucks, but everyone says that's part of the experience. Hopefully, the line will only wrap partially around the block.

Anyway, I'm outta here. Ixtapa, here I come!

Monday, June 19, 2006

Quick Trade Update

I swapped out of St. Jude Medical (STJ) and into more Fortune Brands (FO). Exit 100% of the STJ position at 33.70 (for roughly 13% loss) and added to the FO position at 69.32, bringing the overall cost basis to $75 even. STJ is simply not executing, and in current turbulent times, I prefer owning companies that are not only producing cash, but also distributing cash via dividends.

Another bloody day, but I'm still a selective buyer.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Weekend + Two More Days

This last weekend has been fun for the most part. Friday night, we went to Double D's in Los Gatos for some food and drinks. The pastrami sandwich I had was really tasty.

Saturday, we grabbed a late lunch at the Old Spaghetti Factory in San Jose. I haven't been there in a while, and I've always had a reasonably priced meal there. Brings back old memories... the first dinner date I'd ever gone on was at the Old Spaghetti Factory in good ol' Riverside. Later that night, we hooked it up with some steak fajitas.

Today, I played in the Online Bloggers Poker Tournament. I got busted out pretty early. When all the money went in I was an underdog with red Aces versus T9 suited clubs on a J85 flop with 2 clubs. The turn came a Q, and I was out.

Good thing I got busted out early, because there was plenty of fun to be had. Anyway, I went and got a much-needed haircut. The lady over at Fantastic Sam's asked me if I had graduated from school yet. Instead of answering her question, I asked her about all the white hairs that are now starting to spread like a plague on the sides of my head. Stress can really do some damage to your hair. I always thought it was bullshit... it's not.

After the haircut, we checked out Dolphin Pet Village nearby. That's one nice pet store. The fish are just really healthy and the tanks are well-kept. I'll be going back there in the near future for new fish. Right now, I've only got a couple electric yellow cichlids and a zebra obliquiden.

Next, we hit up Katie Bloom's for a late afternoon calimari snack and some drinks... had a couple glasses of Murphy's stout, and it was good. The weather was perfect. Not overly warm, and just breezy enough to make everything wonderful. Also, there was this table next to ours that had 6 super hot Russians. Seriously, the worst one was a strong 7. And, that's before we started drinking.

Finally, we get home and we cooked up some chicken and steak on a mini-barbeque grill outside. Technically, I'm not supposed to be doing anything of the sort on my balcony, but I figured a small mini-grill was going to be okay. And, I do mean small... it's this "el cheapo" grill I got for $9.99 at Rite-Aid. The meat came out great, since it was marinating over the weekend.

Oh, and TWO MORE DAYS, before we head out to Ixtapa with Spud, his wife, and the GZA of 12th Street, and his wife. Six of us will be partying hard at an all-inclusive resort.

In case you aren't sure where Ixtapa is... if you've seen Shawshank Redemption, then you must recall Zihuatanejo. Ixtapa is right next door. I can't wait. I really am in need of a vacation.

Friday, June 16, 2006

Quick Update

As I have previously stated... I'm in a careful buying mode right now, as many stocks are approaching prices that look attractive. About 3 months ago, I highlighted Deb Shops (DEBS). I've been waiting very patiently for an opportunity, and today, I think it presented itself.

I picked up some DEBS at 26.85.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Pokerstars Blogger Tournament

I registered for this blogger tournament. One of the conditions for registration is that I advertise the tournament on the blog. So here it is. The tournament takes place on June 18, 2006 in case anyone is interested.

Texas Holdem Poker

I have registered to play in the
PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive
to Bloggers.

Registration code: 2474027







Hopefully, I find the time to play it.

Michael Crichton and Science

Earlier I was chatting a bit with a couple of buddies about global warming... and I was reminded of a lecture given by Michael Crichton (yes, the author/scientist/medical doctor) some number of years ago. So, I dug up that lecture, and re-read it. I think it's very good and thought-provoking.

Aliens Cause Global Warming by Michael Crichton

Here are some bits and pieces that will hopefully pique your interest enough to read it.

I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.

. . .

Meanwhile, ever-larger studies failed to confirm any association. A large, seven-country WHO study in 1998 found no association. Nor have well-controlled subsequent studies, to my knowledge. Yet we now read, for example, that second-hand smoke is a cause of breast cancer. At this point you can say pretty much anything you want about second-hand smoke.

. . .

Let's think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?

Monday, June 12, 2006

The Weekend and Drinks

The weekend was fun and pretty relaxing.

On Friday, we went to get some Japanese food over at Minato in San Jose. They aren't really a sushi place, but their tuna and yellowtail sashimi is always very fresh. We had plenty of that plus terriyaki chicken and shrimp and veggie tempura. Can't go wrong at Minato, assuming you're not specifically in search of sushi.

Saturday, we went to watch Cars. I enjoyed it. Definitely a feel good movie. There were a few references that were definitely more adult... like 'whore' tattoos and 60's drug use. I was a moron and forgot to bring the free popcorn coupon I had, and so we didn't get to up our heart attack probability at all. Later that night, we went to the Blue Monkey Lounge. I'd never been there, but it was a nice little place. The biggest complaint I had was that there was a SINGLE bathroom for BOTH men and women. We were there for a double birthday party, and so there were two tables reserved with plenty to drink. Good times.

Sunday was a day for rest, except for hitting the gym... I'm so out of shape, it sucks.

Oh, so a book I ordered came today... full of useful information: Drinks by Vincent Gasnier. But, if you are interested in buying it, get it from Overstock. Just a shade cheaper, but the shipping is far less, since it doesn't qualify for Amazon's Super Saver Shipping.

Friday, June 09, 2006

Logic of a Moron

So, I'm going to blog about this, because I'm a bit peeved by the situation. I think it's utter bullshit, but here we go... please provide me with your thoughts on this.

The Situation

A friend of mine, we'll call him TFR. He bought two plane tickets a few months ago. He finds out today that his companion might not be able to go on the trip. So, he asks me about it, and I respond that it might be transferrable with some penalty...

Here is the chat (with minor edits for clarity):

TFR: do you know if ticket is transferrable
BruteForcex: it might be for a fee... some penalty... maybe $50-150
BruteForcex: but i am not sure [if] there's a penalty on the ticket
BruteForcex: you need to call airline

Ok, so a couple of hours after this chat, TFR calls the airline and finds out that it is in fact NOT transferrable. He now blames me for getting his hopes up, and is pissed off.

Here's a taste (again, with minor edits for clarity and removal of vulgarity):

TFR: You're wrong and you don't what you're talking about.
BruteForcex: huh?
TFR: yeah f*** you
BruteForcex: ?
TFR: I just called [the airline] and i cannot transfer the ticket
TFR: Now I am dissapointed (sic) it gave me false hope
TFR: I am pissed at you

*this hate then continues for another 10 minutes, and it gets downright nasty*


And, right now, I'm not even sure if he's just screwing with me, or if he really feels this way. I should not be a mind reader, that's for sure. I should also not rely on reading people when playing poker.

Anyway, just wanted to get this off my chest, because if this is for real, then TFR's logic is ridiculous. The fact is TFR faces the issue of losing the ticket whether or not what I said turned out to be true. The only thing he can claim was my fault was giving him a sense of false hope. But, seeing as how I did not actively seek to deceive him and was simply misinformed, this is outrageous... especially, given the fact that I qualified my advice with some uncertainty (e.g. might be, need to call the airline, etc).

Ok, that's the end of my rant. And, TFR, you know who you are, I sincerely hope you were just f'ing with me. And, if you were, wow, you did a great job and got me good.

Would love to hear thoughts on TFR's logic irrespective of whether or not TFR is in actuality just busting my balls.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Market Corrections

The market continues to head lower... yes, it's a real life market correction. I haven't been sweating it too much, but it does sting and makes you question yourself and the decisions you've made.

Here are a couple articles that might be of interest:

1) Short article from a while back (October 2005)... Market Corrections: Dos and Don'ts. I agree with a good chunk of what's said. And, #11 on the list is precisely why I try my best not to worry too much about the daily losses that all of us investors are suffering.

What I don't agree with completely is his claim in #2: " There has never been a correction that has not proven to be a buying opportunity." During times of flagrantly excessive earnings multiples and truly unrealistic expectations of growth, corrections can lead to crashes, and it can take many, many years to fully recover. Look at the Nikkei... or maybe at a chart of Tulip bulb prices plotted from the days of the Tulip Bulb craze up until now.

2) Here's one that shows some information on historical market corrections of roughly 20% or greater over the last 60 years... Market Corrections: A History Lesson.

It is informational, and puts things into perspective. If we're in for a 20% correction, then we're barely halfway there. Anyway, Shinhan Financial (SHG) is getting closer to my buying range... it took a hit today along with everything else.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Another Quick Update

Sold Apple June 62.50 Calls (QAAFZ) on the position for 0.75 this morning. Market continues to fall... what a mess.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Quick Update

Initiated a position in Chevron (CVX) in the long-term portfolio at $58.55. Market has really been taking a pounding lately. Still cautiously optimistic as I look to deploy more cash and pick up shares in some companies I've been following.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Reminiscence and a Single Stock

Looking at Craftmade International (CRFT) as a potential buy at the current level around $18 a share. It is a small-cap that has proven it can continue to generate profits. It pays a 2.7% dividend, and looks fairly undervalued right now. Maybe I'll talk more about it later, but I suggest those who are interested in a small-cap play to consider it.

And, I was thinking about how we're all getting so old, and it sucks. Anyway, just to remember the good old days... here's the story of the Bus. Most of you know all about it, but here it is again for everyone to enjoy.

Link To The Bus Story - 1999

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Bloody Tuesday

Blood all over... the market dropped precipitously today. Market breadth numbers indicate that the negativity was pretty widespread. Advancers outpaced decliners by more than a 3 to 1 margin. On a volume basis, it was closer to 4 to 1. All sectors were down over a percent today.

Several things really hurt us: Wal-mart, Energy Prices, continued weakness in the dollar, and a large drop in Consumer Confidence.

Am I sickened? Yes. Am I panicking? Not yet.

All large bullish moves in the market will be met with the occasional pullback or correction. This recent correction has been a big one... the Nasdaq is off roughly 9% since we peaked in mid-April. Time to keep your eyes open for some bargain-hunting.

On my 'potential buy list' are:

Movado (MOV) - Sub-$18
Deb Shops (DEBS) - Sub-$28
Shinhan Financial - $80-83
Value Line (VALU) - $40
Moody's (MCO) - $50-52 (it's pretty much there, so I might start nibbling soon)

That's all for now.

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Recent SoCal Trip

Well, it's been about a week since I took off for a short trip to SoCal. The trip worked out great... I managed to kill about 5 birds with 1 stone. The biggest bird that needed to be taken out (and the main reason for trip) was to attend PetDander's wedding reception.

The other smaller birds were (in chronological order):

1) Do some drinking with Chococat, since I had won a bottle of GlenLivet from her on a bet.

2) Check out Spud's new house... I know he's been dying to show it off for some time, but I just never got a chance to visit. It's a really nice place with an amazing view, by the way.

3) Talk with a few people about a potential opportunity down there.

4) Celebrate my sister's birthday with her and her husband.

Anyway, that's the executive summary. Let the details begin...

Let me start off with a funny knitted gift. Some say it's a dual socking for keeping coins and other goodies, and others say it's... well, I'll just post up pictures of it from two different views.



A Dual Pouch Coin Purse or...



is it something more depraved? You be the judge.

So, back to the story... Wednesday, Chococat and I had a nice dinner over at Il Fornaio in Pasadena. The food was pretty good, but some of the shellfish could have been a bit fresher. It definitely wasn't bad at all, but I think she had the tastier dish. But, the sad truth is, it really doesn't matter too much (we'll get to that in a moment).

After dinner, we're back at her place and we play Scrabble and started having some of that good scotch. Well, let's just say that the two of us (with a tiny bit of help from her roommate) finished off the entire bottle. Talk about overindulging. I lost twice that night... the first loss was by a few points with a nice 8-letter bingo, DEVALUED. My bingo, POOLING, wasn't quite as impressive. The second loss involved seafood pasta, my esophagus, and about four thousand "I'm soooooo sorries."

Well, since she's such an amazingly kind person, I was not thrown out. I crashed there, and the next day we drove around a little bit in her hot car (a Lotus Elise), had some really tasty dumplings, and also some drinks at the local coffee shop. We had plenty of good conversation, and it was really an pleasant day. Oh, and one thing that really threw me off was when I saw some random guy taking a ton of pictures of her car... that was just really funny to me, but I guess that comes with the exotic car territory. After heading back to her place and a quick nap, I had to bid her farewell, as I had to pick up the girlfriend from LAX and then head down to see Spud in Laguna Niguel.

The house was nice... real nice. It's not like it's large or anything, it's just a really nice place. The neighborhood is certainly upscale, and I already mentioned the view. It's wonderful. So, anyway, Spud and Mrs. Spud hooked it up with some giant burgers, which were damn tasty. I don't know how they'd compare with a Big Kahuna burger, but it sure was a damn fine burger.

The next day, I went and talked to a few people about opportunities, and that all went well. Following this, the g/f and I ate over in Dana Point at an overpriced and not-so-good restaurant. We were not impressed, and the weather was gray, which really killed the one redeeming thing about the place... that is, the view.

Ok, so that night Spud, g/f, and I head up to Los Angeles to celebrate my sister's birthday at Luna Park. The place was packed, and the food was very good. I ordered the braised beef cheeks, and it was excellent, along with a couple of Stellas. I hear that they are known for their Mojitos, but I decided to just stick with the beer. It looked like everyone had a nice time there.

Later that night, we hit up a Soju bar called The Blink in Korea Town. I'd never really had Soju before. Not sure if the Korean experience is any different than the Japanese one, but it was fun. I definitely had a good time there. One funny thing about that place was that they have a 'look the other way' attitude about smoking indoors. And, instead of ash trays, they bring you a block of ice on a napkin instead. One funny exchange that evening went like this...

Spud: What's that?
Waitress: It's an ashtray.
Spud: It looks like an ice cube. What is this? A cheap illusion?

As the night went on, Spud got pretty drunk. A few times he was getting borderline out of line with his dry and often times politically incorrect humor. Luckily, we left before he got too surly.

The next day, I went to PetDander's reception with the g/f over at the Sea Empress Restaurant in Gardena. The reception was a good size... I'd say it was roughly 160 people. Both the bride and groom looked great, and the food was pretty good. I wasn't too fond of their their scallop dish and I felt that their Honey Walnut Shrimp dish was extremely bland. But, the rest of the dishes were really tasty... especially the fresh rock cod and the lobster. It was nice meeting up with my friends and also a few people I hadn't seen since my college days.

They had a nice Vietnamese band playing throughout the night, and I really thought they were great. There was a nice balance between the live entertainment and the more serious wedding type stuff. I thought everything worked out well, except that there was some odd mix-up where they kept trying to force me to new tables. But, in the end, it all worked out just fine with our table being overbooked with 12 instead of 10 seats.

Following the reception, some random drunk old guy backs his car into one of our friend's cars. He did not stop or get out... he just figured that a hit-and-run was the best play. Too bad for all of us, no one took a picture of his plates. Everyone was just shocked having witnessed a gross amount of stupidity.

After that commotion, we went to some dive bar down in Anaheim where we drank a bit. The Marquis, Enzo, the Barber, Gamer(o), and Domino were all there, and it was a fun time. We were mostly out of place with our post-wedding reception attire, but it was fine. I even got hit on by a 40+ lady... cuff links must be some sort of old person magnet.

That's pretty much how the trip ended. The next day (Sunday), we were on a plane back home. If you read this far... wow, I'm impressed.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Quick Update

I'll be posting soon about my recent trip to SoCal, but for now let's talk about the market.

The market has been taking a pounding... a serious pounding. Is this merely a correction? I personally think so. And, so I added Form Factor (FORM) today to my long-term portfolio at a price of 36.80.

Has this recent slump been painful? You betcha... I've lost plenty along with other equity investors in the last three weeks. But, I should be able to weather this storm. The longer-term earnings outlook is looking fine.

The international markets have gotten hit a lot harder than us. It's understandable given their extremely heated pace in the recent years. Just the other day the Indian and Russian markets fell roughly 10% in a single day. How sick would it be to wake up and see the Dow down 1000 or the Nasdaq off a solid 220. Just in case it's not obvious, it'd be pretty sick.

That's all for now.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Simple, Yet Annoying Coding Problem

Here's a simple coding problem. What I'm looking for is a simple and efficient solution that does not require any loops. My current solution is pretty efficient, but I think there are probably better solutions, so I will pose the problem here.

IP Addresses are of the form: A.B.C.D where A, B, C, D range from 0 to 255. A computer stores an IP Address as a single value. So, an IP of 0.0.0.0 = 0, an IP of 0.0.1.0 = 256, and an IP of 0.0.2.5 = 517. An IP is simply a base-256 number.

So, say you were given an X and a Y (Y >= X). How many IPs are contained in the range INCLUSIVE that do not end with a 0 or a 255?

Here are some sample Inputs and Outputs (X,Y) --> Total.

(0, 256) --> 254
(250, 255) --> 5
(500, 1000) --> 497
(123, 99999) --> 99097

Anyone have a clever, efficient, coding solution? I'll post mine up in a few days.

*** Edit ***

I now have a solution without any conditionals. So it is a straight formula with the terms X and Y. The formula is pretty ugly, but at least it's a straight (and fast) computation.

Thursday, May 11, 2006

Waterworld

Will the world approach that depicted by the 1995 movie, Waterworld? Just in case, I bought some deeper-in-the-money call options on the PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO). This ETF tracks the Pallisades Water Index.

Picked up September $16 calls for $2.95. The plan is to hold them until near expiration, and roll it into new calls then. If they expire worthless, then at most I'm out about 3 a share.

Hopefully, PHO won't fare as poorly as the movie.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Friendship and Regression Toward The Mean

So, recently I had some conversations with several people regarding where most people stood in their circle of friends. It became somewhat clear that for the most part, people tend to be pretty average compared to their friends. The conversations I had mostly had to do with wealth and power, but it could also be expanded to include intelligence or beauty.

There's a lot of truth to the maxims, Hot begets hot. or Money begets money.

It is fairly uncommon to be at the high end of your group of friends, and it is just as uncommon to be one of the have-nots in your own circle. Over time, you gain some friends and lose others. For the most part, you are more likely to shed those friends who are further from the mean.

Sometimes, it is only natural that your interests change as your status does. If you were to suddenly strike it rich, you might be more inclined to pick up sailing or start a fine wine collection. If you were to suddenly find yourself to be more physically attractive... say, you got a nose job, lost some weight, or perhaps underwent breast augmentation surgery, you might be more interested in being fashionable and more social. These changes in your interests will undoubtedly alter your circle of friends, resulting in both gains and losses. After all, you only have so much time.

But, maybe the alteration of your group of friends is not as natural as it seems. The bigger question, however, has to do with causality. I know that it's not purely black or white... but, let's talk about which of these holds more weight in explaining why most people tend to be fairly average in their circles.

a) You tend to be the average of your friends, because there is simply more overlap in interests.

b) You tend to be the average of your friends, because you are more likely to strive to be better if most of your friends are heads and shoulders above you and more likely to be content with your status if you are at the top of the pecking order within your circle. Ultimately, this leads to a stoppage in your growth, and you become quite average.

I do think it's a combination of both, but I think that if I had to choose, I think that the second reason wins out. There are so many things that you never even knew existed, yet after spending enough time with a certain echelon of society, you find yourself interested in these very things that you had no knowledge of beforehand.

As I reflect on my own past, I know that over time my group of friends has shifted... very much in line with my own growth. Frankly, I think it sucks that life works out this way, but it really is the way it works. Over time, you can't hang with the extremes of your group so much (maybe you can't afford it any more, or you just don't fit in any more), and so the extremes get trimmed. Those that were in your group that moved up above and beyond your upper bound tend to disappear from your life, and those that either moved down or from whom you moved above and away from also tend to disappear.

I know I've rambling, but I had several conversations about this, and I think it's an interesting topic. Let me know what you think.

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Taco Bravo

So, last night I did nothing but play a ton of X360 and clean up my place, since my girlfriend had a night out with her co-workers... well, I suppose they are ex-coworkers as Friday was her last day. She starts at a new company next Monday. Anyway, my room is not that big of a mess any more.

The highlight of my evening was the Super Nachos I had from Taco Bravo. What a big mess of a meal. Here's a pic I took. It was pretty damn large, and I can't hang at all any more when it comes to eating large amounts. I gave up after I took down about 80% of it. It was heavy... lots of beans, cheese, and ground beef. Since the pic is a top view, it really doesn't do this thing justice. And, at 4 bucks, it's a lot of food. Yay for Taco Bravo!

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Kodak and the Guess Who? Game

Kodak announced yet another loss this morning. Boo on that. Looks like I'm a sucker and a believer, but I still continue to believe. Bill Miller's large stake also provides me with another vote of confidence, I'll be sticking around I guess.

Now, onto the game. I was playing on: Guess the Dictator or Sitcom Character

I've got a thing for those stupid tree search guessing games... anyway, here are two sitcom characters. See if you can figure them out.

Character #1 -- Took 19 questions.

1) Are you female? No.
2) Are you often seen dating different women? No.
3) Do you have trouble performing everyday tasks? No.
4) Do you put down rebellions? No.
5) Do you often dispense advice? Yes.
6) Do you work with animals? No.
7) Are you a middle age white guy? Yes.
8) Are you the owner of a company? No.
9) Are you tall? No.
10) Do you have 3 children? No.
11) Are you a television writer? No.
12) Are you heavy? Yes.
13) Are you a butler? No.
14) Do you work in a department store? No.
15) Do you deliver mail? No.
16) Does your son-in-law live with you? Yes.
17) Are you liked by all? No.
18) Do you like cigars? Yes.
19) Do you live in New York City? Yes.


Character #2 -- Took 53 questions.

1) Are you female? No.
2) Are you often seen dating different women? Yes.
3) Are you a salesman? No.
4) Do you live in New York? Yes.
5) Are you rich? No.
6) Are you funny? Yes.
7) Are you balding? No.
8) Do you live in the same building with a mailman? No.
9) Are you a lawyer? No.
10) Do you work at a museum? No.
11) Are you an actor? No.
12) Were you once married to a supermodel? No.
13) Are you the deputy mayor of New York? No.
14) Do you work for an advertising agency? No.
15) Do you work on TV? No.
16) Have you ever been on a sports team? No.
17) Were/Are you a professor? No.
18) Do you drive for a living? No.
19) Are you a comedian? No.
20) Did your parents abandon you? No.
21) Are you british? No.
22) Do you live with your cousin? No.
23) Are you a Doctor? No.
24) Do you work in a bar? No.
25) Do you have a mustache? No.
26) Are you a mailman? No.
27) Are you constantly making crude sexual remarks? No.
28) Are you a writer? No.
29) Do you work as a policeman? No.
30) Is your boss black? No.
31) Do you own any birds? No.
32) Are you an auto mechanic? No.
33) Do you work at night? No.
34) Are you a photographer? No.
35) Do you have any children? No.
36) Did you grow up in the 60s? No.
37) Do you have curly hair? Yes.
38) Do you dress as a woman? No.
39) Are you a handyman? No.
40) Do you work in a news stand? No.
41) Do you work as an RA? No.
42) Are you a fact checker? No.
43) Are you a dentist in Chicago? No.
44) Are you a restaurant owner? No.
45) Are you black? Yes.
46) Are you friends with Holly? No.
47) Is your best friend white? No.
48) Are you friends with Theo? No.
49) Are you involved with mathematics? No.
50) Does your best friend call you Bud? No.
51) Are you a student? Yes.
52) Are you in College? No.
53) Is your father a doctor? Yes.

What TV sitcom characters was I?

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Quick Update + CTST 2006

I checked out the CardTech/SecurTech exhibit at the Moscone Center yesterday evening. It was interesting, and I got to see a palm vein pattern biometric device from Fujitsu. I'd read quite a bit about it in the past, but yesterday was the first time I got to play with one. The error rates they quote are not believable, and I'm certain that the actual error rates you'd see in the field are orders of magnitude worse (which, would still be quite good).

I also saw some guys from International Game Technology (IGT) checking out and asking about biometrics. Perhaps the casinos are looking into securing player cards with fingerprints or some other biometric.

Visa sponsored the hors d'oeuvres and refreshments that evening. And, they really went all out. I really wonder what Visa considers a meal. They served sushi (actual sushi, not just California rolls), New York steak strips, turkey, various cheeses, tons of fruits, truffles, chocolate covered strawberries, seafood cocktails (calimari or shrimp), etc. There was also red and white wine available along with a decent selection beer, soft drinks, and bottled water. It was great. No one in attendance could complain about the quality of the food.

And, the mandatory boring update: Bought Dell Computer (DELL) at 25.39. Been watching it for some time, and it has now entered my buy range, so I picked some up.

** Edit #1
So, American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) released great Same Store Sales numbers, and guided their quarter higher. Moved up another 2% afterhours on the news. Go AEOS!

Monday, May 01, 2006

My Fairly Eventful Weekend

This has to be one of the first nice weather weekends we've had in a long time. I'm glad I took advantage it.

Friday

So, I went to Bay101 that night with my poker buddy, NoKuntrol. I had mistakenly thought it was the paycheck syzygy... the alignment of monthly, semi-monthly, and bi-weekly paydays. But, I was wrong. Bi-weekly paychecks went out the previous Friday. I was off by one due to the 5 Fridays we had in March. It didn't matter... I had to wait 3+ hours to get a seat. But, it wasn't too bad, I did get to watch NK play while I waited. His game's getting pretty damn good. He left up with well over a rack in profit.

To make a long story short(er), I played for over 8 hours and won a whopping $132 at the 6/12. I started off losing with KK, QQ, JJ twice, and TT twice in the first two hours. That put me in -$200 to -$300 range for about 6 hours. Then, I made it all back and then some in the final two hours when a wannabe pro (you know the type... the sunglasses wearing, stare you down, pot-odds talking, and taking way too long to think type) showed up and tried to outplay me over and over and over again.

Here's the hand that kind of set him off on his mission to get me.

It's 6-handed at this point with 2 prop players (those who play professionally with their own money, but also get paid by the card room to keep games from running out of players). These two props I've played with many times before, one is excellent and scares me, the other is quite good. Then, there was the wannabe, one unknown Asian guy, and another Asian guy I've played with plenty before that plays a bit too loosely pre-flop, but has a strong post-flop game. NoKuntrol had left about an hour earlier, so he missed this hand.

So, anyway, I've got ATo in the big blind. Everyone limps to the wannabe, and the small blind (the lesser prop) folds. I call, as does everyone else. The flop comes J88. Checks to the wannabe, who checks. I'm pretty sure he's got a small pocket pair or AT-AK. It's possible he's got a monster, but I really doubt it. The turn brings a 4. I check, and again everyone checks to the wannabe. I'm pretty sure if any player actually had something they'd bet this turn card. The wannabe now bets... I'm thinking there's a great chance that a raise knocks out the players in between and there's a pretty good chance the wannabe folds here. He's been making what he claims were tough laydowns up to this point. The poker gods were with me on this one, and he folds, and I take down the pot.

Wannabe: Looks like you missed a bet.
BruteForce: Maybe you would have won if you had checked.
Wannabe: There's no way I can check my hand there.
BruteForce: I know that. That's why I knew I could check-raise you... you're an open book to me.

Who knows if I was bluffing with the best hand or not. In any case, it was pretty lame table talk, but it did irk him enough to pay me off grandly until I left.

Saturday

I got up at 1:30. That's pretty damn good considering I went to bed at eight in the morning. Played some more XBox360 (I beat Fable: Lost Chapters, yay... but there's a lot of random crap I can still do in the game, so I guess I'll continue to play it).

Anyway, the girlfriend came over around 6, and we hit up Petsmart to get some fish medicine for her parrotfish. Both of them are sick... we suspect gill flukes, but we're not positive.

After taking care of her fish, we went out to dinner at Mama Mia's just nearby. We've never been there, and figured we'd give it a try. It was pretty good. We were both quite pleased with the meal. I had the Linguine with Clams in the bianca sauce, and she had the Osso Bucco, which was excellent (I had a few bites of it).

Following dinner, we actually rented a movie, King Kong, and an X360 game, Dead or Alive 4. I don't really recommend that game unless you really like the Tekken-style fighting games. I never was a good street fighter player, and not surprisingly I'm pretty damn horrible at this game. I'm usually totally against renting movies, and even now I'm not sure what compelled me to do it. I always get pissed off about movie rental prices, because the prices are outrageous. Seriously... what if you went to Hertz and they told you that renting a crappy Dodge Neon would cost you $3000 for 5 days? The movie rental business is based upon legalized usury. Ok, enough of my bitching.

Sunday

Got up before noon, and went to the
Nikkei Matsuri Festival in San Jose. It was entertaining for a short while. The festival itself isn't all that big, and so we saw pretty much all there was to see in less than a couple of hours. I found the Suiseki exhibit the most interesting. I guess I just felt that the whole idea behind it was pretty neat. When you really think about it, it's nothing more than rock collecting. But, these naturally formed rocks really do look like greater landscapes. I guess you could say that it's sort of microcosmic. Anyway, I liked what I saw. Not enough for me to go out there starting my own collection or anything, but I definitely can appreciate it all.

After checking out the festival, we had a late lunch in Santana Row at Thea Mediterranean. The food is primarily Greek and Turkish. Neither of us had ever been here before either. We both started with an amazing tasting Spanakopita. For our main lunch entrees, she ordered the Garides, which came as six large prawns cooked on zucchini cakes. It was pretty tasty. I went with my usual Greek favorite... the Moussaka. I know quite a few that don't like moussaka, but I don't understand why or how. I personally think it's a great tasting dish, and the one at Thea was quite good.

After lunch, we walked around Santana Row for a bit, and watched a few people play chess in their lounge area. It's really a nice area to walk and window shop. Real (and affordable) shopping is best done elsewhere.

Next, we decided to watch Thank You For Smoking. I thought it was really funny and entertaining. Unfortunately, she felt otherwise, but I guess I expected it somewhat. She's really not much into movie dialogue, and certainly not a movie predicated on dialogue. If anyone hasn't seen it and actually enjoys movie dialogue, then I recommend it.

I guess that brings my weekend to a close. We did get sunburnt from our Sunday activities, but it was rather mild. Hopefully the weather stays nice... especially, after the record breaking dreariness we experienced recently.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

A Fancy Expression

The expression, "caught my fancy," has recently caught my fancy. What is the origin of this expression, and how come I am having difficulty finding more information on it? I searched Google, and I was unable to come up with anything useful.

Anyone know for sure or care to make an educated guess?

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

eBay And The 6-Card Game

Well, I'm still recovering from the Portal Player (PLAY) disaster. Yes, it was a disaster. Anyway, I jumped into some EBAY today at 34.20. It's a smaller trading position... time to take smaller positions as I continue to heal. At the current price, the stock looks attractive.

Back to what's important. Ha ha.

Someone pointed out that it might be a lot easier to look at the game as an acyclic directed graph instead of as an exhaustive game tree. This will certainly reduce the number of nodes, but it might make other computations I'm interested in more difficult. The exhaustive game tree shows all possible games, which allows for repeat game states. These repeat game states are redundant and entire subtrees are duplicated. Anyway, that's all for now.

Monday, April 24, 2006

Games For Analysis

So, I'm kind of obsessed with this 6-Value strategy game.

Here are a few games I played tonight... anyone want to help me take a look at these games? In particular, I'm interested in knowing the following:

1) In which round was the game ultimately decided?
2) Were there any mistakes in the games, or was the decision purely based on a "guess" scenario?
3) Did any players miss a forced victory by misplaying?

Here are the games... 3 wins, 2 losses. Scores after each round on the right with Final Scores in bold.

Pot Opp. Me
Me Opp.
4 4 5
13 0
6 3 3
13 0
3 6 1
13 22
1 5 2
13 30
5 2 6
26 30
2 1 4
33 30






5 3 3
0 0
2 6 2
0 21
4 2 5
11 21
1 1 4
17 21
3 5 1
17 30
6 4 6
33 30






2 6 1
0 9
4 5 4
0 22
3 3 2
0 30
6 1 6
13 30
5 2 5
25 30
1 4 3
25 38






5 6 4
0 15
4 4 3
0 26
6 5 5
0 26
1 1 6
24 26
3 3 1
24 33
2 2 2
24 33






2 5 1
0 8
3 6 5
0 22
6 3 6
15 22
4 4 4
15 22
5 1 3
36 22
1 2 2
36 22

Deceptively Simple Strategy Game

I've recently become interested in this simple strategy game... I'll lay out the rules and also provide an example of a complete game.

The Rules
2 Players (A and B) are each given 6 cards labeled 1 through 6. The Pot is also given 6 cards labeled 1 through 6.

The game consists of 6 rounds. In each round one of the Pot's cards is randomly selected, and its value is shown to both players. Players A and B now have to decide what they want to bid for the card. So, each player selects a card from his own stack to play. And, both cards are revealed simultaneously. The player that played the higher card wins all 3 cards.

Once a card has been played, it cannot be played again.

If there is a tie, then all the cards remain in the pot. The winner of the next round will then claim all the cards in the pot. If the 6th and final round results in a tie, then no one wins the cards in the pot, and the game ends.

The winner is the player who has accumulated more points (sum of all values of the cards won). In this game, there are 63 points up for grabs (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) * 3. So, you automatically win if you get 32 or more points. However, you can also win a game with fewer points due to ties.

Below is an example of a complete game. Note that after Round 4, Player A cannot lose if he plays it correctly. The carryover results in a pot with 15 points for Round 5. Player A has the all-powerful 6, and is guaranteed to win at least 22 points in that round. And, since Player A has 13 at that point, a win is guaranteed.

Anyway, I'm looking for more insight and thoughts on this game and how to play this more correctly. A lossless strategy does not exist, but I do believe that a computer playing perfect against a typical human would hold a large edge.

Example Game:

Round 1
Inventory
P: 1 2 3 4 5 6
A: 1 2 3 4 5 6
B: 1 2 3 4 5 6
Total Up For Grabs: 63

Pot randomly plays: 5
A / B simultaneously play: 5 / 3
Result - A (5 5 3 = 13), B (0)

Round 2
Inventory
P: 1 2 3 4 6
A: 1 2 3 4 6
B: 1 2 4 5 6
Total Up For Grabs: 50

Pot randomly plays: 1
A / B simultaneously play: 1 / 2
Result - A (5 5 3 = 13), B (2 1 1 = 4)

Round 3
Inventory
P: 2 3 4 6
A: 2 3 4 6
B: 1 4 5 6
Total Up For Grabs: 46

Pot randomly plays: 6
A / B simultaneously play: 2 / 6
Result - A (5 5 3 = 13), B (2 1 1 6 6 2 = 18)

Round 4
Inventory
P: 2 3 4
A: 3 4 6
B: 1 4 5
Total Up For Grabs: 32

Pot randomly plays: 4
A / B simultaneously play: 4 / 4
Result - A (5 5 3 = 13), B (2 1 1 6 6 2 = 18)

Round 5
Inventory
P: 2 3
A: 3 6
B: 1 5
Total Up For Grabs: 20

Pot randomly plays: 3 (4 4 4 roll over due to tie in previous round) = 15
A / B simultaneously play: 6 / 1
Result - A (5 5 3 3 4 4 4 6 1 = 35), B (2 1 1 6 6 2 = 18)

Round 6
Inventory
P: 2
A: 3
B: 5
Total Up For Grabs: 10

Pot randomly plays: 2
A / B simultaneously play: 3 / 5
Result - A (5 5 3 3 4 4 4 6 1 = 35), B (2 1 1 6 6 2 2 3 5 = 28)

Final Result: A beats B with a score of 35 - 28.

Friday, April 21, 2006

Dark Side of Oz

I'm sure everyone's heard about how Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon can be synchronized with The Wizard of Oz movie. But, most have never actually tried it out. I know I haven't.

Now's your chance to see what the fuss is all about.



Dark Side of the Rainbow.

I haven't watched the whole thing, but I did skip around a bit. Some parts seem to really work well. It was harder to see the fit in other parts.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

I Got Played

Biggest trading mistake in quite some time. I dumped Portal Player (PLAY) in the pre-market at the high 13's for my largest loss since an ill-timed Juniper Networks (JNPR) short sale. The shorts were right on PLAY, and I got played. I am a fool. Simple as that. They lost the iPod business for the most part, which was the bulk of their revenue. As much as it sucks, at least I can laugh about it... no ulcers here.

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

I'm Clueless

So, I was catching up on reading Slashdot via Bloglines, and I was shown some graphical exception error. Pretty funny... I'm glad I have a screen shot to show it to all of you.

Click the image to see the exception.

Monday, April 17, 2006

Quick Update

Sold Finish Line (FINL) from the Long-Term Portfolio... I guess it wasn't meant to be. Not so long-term a holding after all.

Student Loan Corporation had a disappointing earnings release this morning, and that was good for a nice 10% haircut. That stung me a bit.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Xbox 360

First, let me say that I'm really not a gamer. The last system I really played with was a Super Nintendo. Back when I used to play console games, I did have a lot of fun.

Anyway, it's about time I upgraded. I've been looking to buy a newest generation system for a while now, and everyone kept telling me to hold off for the Playstation 3 which was slated for this spring. Well, they delayed the release until late this year or early next year. After hearing that, I decided I was not interested in waiting any more. So, I've been looking at the Xbox 360, and I finally ordered one today.

I couldn't just order the system since all these vendors are selling them in bundles only.

Xbox 360 Platinum System $400
Xbox 360 Wireless Controller $50
Project Gotham Racing 3 (Xbox 360) $49
Fable (Xbox) - Bonus Game $0
Xbox 360 Play and Charge Kit $20

Shipping: $0 (Yay!)
Taxes: $43 (Boo!)

Grand Total: $562

I don't think I got ripped off, and if I did, oh well. A console gaming system is the type of purchase that I'll be making about once every decade... if that. Anyway, I'm excited.

Saturday, April 15, 2006

The Grub of Count Dracula

I just woke up from a rather deep food coma.

Earlier tonight, we decided to try something different. So, we headed out to Los Gatos, where those with money reside and those without dine. We'd passed by this small little Romanian restaurant numerous times in the past, but we never had a chance to try it. That is, until tonight.

We walked into the Transilvania Restaurant, and we were greeted and seated promptly. The place is small, quiet, and definitely qualifies as romantic. While I'm familiar with some traditional European dishes, I had never had many of their offerings.

I decided on the Sarmale, which was a dish consisting of cabbage-wrapped meat. It also came with a side of polenta. Man, it was certainly tasty. It was very much homestyle cooking, but it was really good. The food did not come fancied up in any way, but it tasted great.

She had some homemade chicken soup and the Mititei, which is a traditional sausage dish served with mustard. Her meal came with some ordinary french fries on the side, but that didn't really take away from the food. The sausages were really good, but I think I liked my dish a bit more. Come to think of it, it could go either way depending on my mood.

We got a few samples of various red wines from Romania, and I ended up really liking one of them. So, I got myself a glass. I usually don't have wine with my meals... wine is really not my thing. Since she much prefers the drier wines, she went with a glass of some Romanian Pinot Noir.

Anyway, in summary, if you're ever in the area and want to try some Romanian food. Give Transilvania Restaurant a try. Maybe you'll enjoy it as much as we did.

Friday, April 14, 2006

Quick Update

Well, I've been playing around with the Ipod Nano... got it today as specified by the rescheduled delivery date. That thing is tiny. It's pretty sweet. Not sure if I'll start listening to music at work or not. I guess we'll see.

Anyway, onto the important stuff...

Sold off the rest of the Form Factor (FORM) in the 40-40.50 range. Also, increased the Portal Player (PLAY) position substantially -- added shares at 21.18.

Next week is going to be an important week for me and the trading port. First, Apple (AAPL) reports its earnings. This should affect both AAPL and PLAY and will play a role in the options I've written for Apple. Also, SanDisk (SNDK) reports earnings -- barring a disasterous quarter, looks like I'm going to lock in maximum profit on the buy-write strategy.

After next week, I'm going to have a lot of dry powder... not sure where to make a move next.

And, P.S. Pyramid Hefeweizen beer is relatively inexpensive and excellent. I encourage you all to try some.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Nano Nano

It's so close to being in my hands... So, a little over a week ago I ordered my Nano from PokerStars. I was expecting it yesterday, but I didn't receive it. So, I checked on it, and apparently the delivery has been re-scheduled.

Status: In Transit - Rescheduled
Rescheduled Delivery: 04/13/2006

At this point I'm rated as a Gold player on the site, so I get double the points. 10000 points a month is pretty easily doable playing at this doubled rate. Not sure exactly what I'll try to get next, but the VIP store definitely gets my support.

Monday, April 10, 2006

Sizzler, Anyone?

A couple weeks ago I ate at Sizzler... yes, the one that never did serve good food and eventually went bankrupt, but somehow managed to emerge from its ashes. It was such a weird experience too. Sizzler's not a sitdown place anymore. You order your food from a menu posted on the wall and they bring it to your table. Maybe it had never been one, but I always remembered it being a standard sitdown place.

The weirdest part of the Sizzler experience was that right at the register was a vat of beer on ice. And, it wasn't just normal sized beer for your everyday dinner... we're talking about 22oz Coronas.

Anyway, I had a cajun chicken sandwich, which wasn't all that bad. I won't be going back to Sizzler again, but it certainly was a strange experience, even though it was nothing like I had ever remembered (or imagined) it to be.

I'm bored, and I thought I'd share my recent dinner at Sizzler.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Quick Update

Sold 20% of the Form Factor (FORM) position at 41.26 today.

Picked up some Portal Player (PLAY) at 22 even. Not sure what to do with it at this point, but it's worth more than this.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Hey Jude

St. Jude Medical (STJ) warned last night that it would not be able to achieve its quarterly sales numbers. Implantable defibrillator sales have slowed remarkably, and so the numbers suffer. The company is blaming industry turbulence resulting from the recent acquisition of Guidant.

The news has sent STJ tumbling. It currently trades at $36, down 13%. And, it is now a loser for me with a cost basis in the 38.50s.

In other news...

Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) has really taken off without me. Now, I can do nothing but wait. I expressed my intent to purchase here. The stock is now trading up almost 15% since. Must not chase. Must not chase. Must not chase. In any case, I'm reminded daily of the train I missed. Maybe it will come back for me.

Time to take the sad song... and make it better.

Apple (AAPL) has unleashed new software to run Windows XP. At this very moment, that news is good for a 7.5% move to the upside.

SanDisk (SNDK) is trying to break $60. At this point I'm 'maxed out' since this was a buy-write position. The current basis on the shares is 53.27 (55.72 stock - 2.45 call options). Once SNDK is at 57.50 or above, no additional profits can be made. If it moves considerably higher, then I might buy the April 57.50 put contracts on the cheap to lock in sizeable gains. We're definitely not in the clear yet as SanDisk announces their earnings the week of options expiry.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

First Marblehead News

The shorts were really wrong on this one. Tom Brown of BankStocks.com was not.

Bank of America's contract with First Marblehead (FMD) was set to expire in May. And, the FMD bears must have figured there was serious risk to an extension, since they did not cover their shares. In fact, short interest in FMD increased going from February to March.

And, now the news is in.

From this afternoon's press release:

The First Marblehead Corporation announced today that it has signed an agreement with Bank of America to provide certain Direct-to-Consumer private student loan services through May 31, 2008, provided that either party may terminate this agreement on or after June 1, 2007 upon 90 days notice.

FMD currently trading up 8.3% afterhours at $48. This, after ticking up 2.2% during the normal trading session. FMD, Go Go Go!

Monday, April 03, 2006

Quick Update

Sold Suntech Power Holdings (STP) at 36.33.

*Edit: Sold Apple (AAPL) April 67.50 Call options (QAADU) at 1.30. Also, looks like Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) is running away. I'm not going to chase. I was looking for an entry, and it did not materialize. It remains on my watch.

*Edit 2: Executed a buy-write on SanDisk (SNDK). Buy shares at 55.72. Sell April 57.50 Call options (SWFDY) at 2.45. Goldman downgrade today based on pricing pressure is what is causing most of today's selling.

Friday, March 31, 2006

Portfolio Checkpoint - 2006 Q1

Here's what the long-term portfolio currently looks like at the close of the first quarter in 2006.

Notice how lackluster or stellar performance this quarter can cause a position to shrink or grow substantially relative to other positions in the portfolio. Over time, the poorest of performers can shrink to a point where they are no longer really meaningful. Similarly, the strongest performers can grow to dominate your portfolio.

This is why it is nice to monitor the sector allocations of your portfolio to ensure that the portfolio is fairly diversified. I may need to trim the Altria position, but I was really waiting for the eventual break-up to take place. However, my patience grows thin.

Long-term Portfolio (listed in order of position size)

Company Name - Ticker Symbol - % of Invested Portfolio / Change From Previous Checkpoint

1) Altria Group - MO - 18.4% / -1.9%
2) Harrah's Entertainment - HET - 11.1% / +0.4%
3) Student Loan Corp. - STU - 9.1% / +0.3%
4) General Electric - GE - 6.9% / +0.4%
5) Constellation Brands - STZ - 6.0% / -0.5%
6) American Eagle Outfitters - AEOS - 5.7% / +0.9%
7) Eastman Kodak - EK - 5.5% / +0.6%
8) International Gaming Technology - IGT - 5.1% / +0.5%
9) First Marblehead Corp. - FMD - 4.1% / +0.5%
10) *Fortune Brands - FO - 3.9% / +3.9%
11) Capital One Financial - COF - 3.6% / -0.4%
12) Amgen - AMGN - 3.5% / -0.4%
13) North Fork Bancorp - NFB - 3.4% / -0.1%
14) Linear Technology - LLTC - 3.4% / -0.4%
15) St. Jude Medical - STJ - 2.0% / -0.6%
16) Dow Chemical - DOW - 1.9% / -0.3%
17) Sun Bancorp - SNBC - 1.9% / +0.1%
18) Equity Office Properties - EOP - 1.8% / 0.0%
19) Finish Line - FINL - 1.6% / -0.1%
20) Khongzong Corp. - KONG - 1.3% / -0.2%
21) **Juniper Networks - JNPR - 0.0% / -2.2%

* New to Portfolio
** Juniper Networks (JNPR) was dropped from the portfolio on January 30, 2006.

Link to Previous Checkpoint (January 6, 2006)

Note: Percentages do not reflect any cash held in the Portfolio.

Quick Trades Today

It's been a while since I've played with a few stocks just for fun. I'm currently at the tail-end of a self-imposed poker break after a bad session a week ago.

So, here are three positions I picked up today. There's a good chance I'll exit them before the day's over.

** Edited -- Market 3, Brute Force 0 **

RF Micro Devices (RFMD) at 8.62 ** Sold 8.40
Portal Player (PLAY) at 22.33 ** Sold 22.22
Synaptics (SYNA) at 22.00 ** Sold 21.90

Stops have been set... this is very much just for fun.

On another note, American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) is currently trading above $30 a share. This is the first time it has hit that value since the position was first established.

Finally, a Portfolio Checkpoint much like this one from January will be blogged this weekend. I think I'll do these checkpoint updates once a quarter.

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

My Girlfriend Is MacGyver

I've got this shower caddy that looks something like this...



Anyway, I've used it for some time at the old place and it works great. However, at the new apartment, the height between the ceiling and the floor is just off. The caddy won't fit. The caddy is adjustable with various parts, but no matter what combination you use, it simply does not work out.

The caddy has been leaning against the wall, cluttering up the bathroom area since my failed attempt to install it. After getting sick of the clutter, my girlfriend takes a look at it and tells me that she can fix it. I'm pretty much saying... ya, right. She says that all she needs are a couple of wine bottle corks. Luckily, we save most of ours (for the memories).

Fifteen minutes later, she's done and it's completely installed and it's snug. A real-life MacGyver effort. I still don't know exactly how she got it working and I have no idea where the corks went... probably inside the metal poles to force the spring into a different position.

So, this blog entry is a big thank you to my MacGyver of a girl.

Sunday, March 26, 2006

Apartment Pics

Finally got a chance to take a few pictures of the apartment. I'm not completely unpacked yet, but it's not too bad now.

Living Room 1



Living Room 2



A Tiger Protecting Some Wedding Giveaway Treasures

Saturday, March 25, 2006

How Fast Is Your Brain?

I read on Slashdot that some company called Posit Science had developed a brain speed test based on auditory processing ability. The company posits that the ability to process auditory signals is positively correlated with the ability to process information in general. That is, the better you do on this test, the more likely you are able to process information at a faster rate.

Try the test here: Brain Speed Test. The tutorial is really simple, but when the test picks up, it gets really tough. I missed quite a few once they started getting ridiculously fast. The nice thing is reflex time is not a part of the test. The time it takes for you to produce an answer is not a factor in this test.

Just a quick edit here... the girlfriend blew my response time out of the water with a score of 26 milliseconds.

Click on the image below to zoom in.

Friday, March 24, 2006

Hop On The Seoul Train

Just wanted to throw a company at all of you to take a closer look at... Shinhan Financial Group (SHG).

SHG is a financial juggernaut in South Korea and one of the largest Korean companies based on market capitalization. They own a number of banks in Korea, including their flagship, Shinhan Bank, the oldest commercial bank of Korea, Chohung Bank, and Jeju Bank, a smaller regional bank on the island of Jeju. In addition, they also control subsidiaries that deal in credit cards all the way to the leasing of industrial equipment. The company makes a ton of cash, and they are growing rapidly.

The Korean market has been hot recently. It is up around 40% in the past 12 months. I believe Korea is getting stronger year by year, and I feel that there is money to be made hopping on the back of one of its strongest companies.

SHG trades as an ADR here, and there does not seem to be too much interest in it. Trading volume is fairly low on it, and there does not seem to be much analyst coverage. In researching Shinhan, I noticed that Cramer had actually recommended the stock on his Mad Money show some time in November in the $77-78 range. I missed that episode, and I never did follow up on his recommendation. I think he's right on this one in a big way.

I am going to be looking for an entry into SHG soon. I will probably be buying this in a few chunks. I do hope it pulls back some. Let's make some money.

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Working Towards A Healthy Vocabulary

It's nice to have a strong vocabulary. I've been on a word binge ever since yesterday's discovery of perquisite.

Today, I was made aware of the distinction between healthy and healthful. The word healthy is used to describe something that possesses good health. The word healthful is used to describe something that is conducive to good health. Technically, it's a healthful environment that you seek, not a healthy one.

At the present, both can be used interchangeably, but this is only because people did not care enough to keep their meanings distinct. It's a real shame too. It's so unfair to lump similar entities; it is an attack on lexical individualism. Do you think the Sioux or Kickapoo would appreciate being called natives?

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

You Learn Something New Every Day

Some of you may already know this... especially those of you who love words and possess a strong vocabulary.

I have probably known what a job perk was since I was in elementary school. It's one of those extra benefits you get on top of your normal compensation. Today, I found out that perk was short for perquisite. I guess it's just one of those words that you never really had to look up and pretty much learned from context and others' usage.

Why it isn't spelled perq I don't know, but I suspect it is because perq just doesn't look like a proper English word. It's too bad too, Scrabble really could use another ends in a Q word. So, there you have it. I learned the word perquisite today. I wonder if most people out there are aware that perk comes from perquisite.

Monday, March 20, 2006

Weekend and a Quick Trade Update

So, the weekend was fairly uneventful for me. The weather was nice, but I didn't really take advantage of it, and now I'm regretting it, since the gloomy weather has returned.

Anyway, St. Patrick's Day night was spent drinking at home, mostly because of laziness.

On Saturday, we had a Moroccan feast over at Menara. This would be the second time I've been there. The first time was in 1999 when our clinic project team back in college visited the sponsoring company, which was located in the Bay Area. The food is quite good, and the atmosphere is different, but really nice and laid-back. I mean this literally, since you're eating your meal while on the ground lying against pillows and cushions.

I also ran lots of errands, and finally bought a television stand among other household necessities. And, last night I spent many hours doing taxes. I don't have as big of a tax bill as I had thought. Yay!

Today, my Allegheny Technologies (ATI) shares were called away for $55. I had sold the 55 calls for $1, so my exit is $56. About time I book a winner. My trading port suffers, as my Long-Term portfolio continues to perform well.

With some of the ATI proceeds, I picked up some Suntech Power Holdings (STP) at $33.05. We'll see how this goes... I've been following it for some time. Today's dropwas due in part to a fairly negative Barron's article about the cost of silicon affecting solar panel installation costs and also a downgrade of Evergreen Solar (ESLR) to Underperform by RBC Capital Markets. I don't think that the drop today is justified and was not based on any company-specific issue. The bottom line is that STP is profitable and ESLR is not. I will be watching this carefully.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Obstacles Are For Suckers

So, a friend of mine sent me some pictures that were taken by one of his buddies who recently visited a country that will remain unnamed. Here's my favorite from the bunch.

Constructing a building and a street light is in the way? No problem.



They must have learned this from us software guys when we come up with a quick workaround for a problem instead of fixing it.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Quick Update

Sold March 55 calls on the Allegheny Technologies (ATI) position in the Trading Portfolio for $1.00 today. I figure if ATI can hold $55, this will provide me with an exit at $56 effectively.

Currently added to the watch list for consideration:

Movado (MOV)
Mercantile Bankshares (MRBK)
Proassurance (PRA)

Monday, March 13, 2006

The Past Few Days

So, over the weekend, I was still a bit sick. But, I managed to try out a new sushi place nearby called Michi Sushi. It simply wasn't that good, especially considering the prices there. I'll give it an A for presentation, but overall the meal rated about a C. The quality of the fish was not as good as it should have been, and the food service was slow on top of that. To their credit, they did provide extra snacks to compensate for the long food wait.

Being sick, I pretty much stayed home all weekend. I did read One Of A Kind: The Rise and Fall of Stuey "The Kid" Ungar, The World's Greatest Poker Player. I thoroughly enjoyed the book, and I felt that it did a good job keeping the story going. Even non-poker players might enjoy this tale of excess. Check it out if you want to see yet another story telling all of us why (hard) drugs are bad.

Finally, today Capital One Financial (COF) announced that it is acquiring North Fork Bank (NFB) in a cash plus stock deal. This is the first time I've ever owned stock in a company that was acquiring another company that I owned stock in. I'm pretty much going to let the acquisition take place, which will convert each share of NFB into 0.2216 shares of COF along with $11.25 in cash. I guess it's time to find another regional bank to invest in.

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Quick Trade and Poker Update

Took the loss on the XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) call options. Dumped them in the morning at 0.95, a loss of 1.45 per contract. I guess I should have taken the profits while the profits were good. What a sucker I am. I'm still sick, so I haven't had much market enthusiasm lately. Hopefully, that'll change soon.

In poker news... I have set a new goal for myself. I'm going to earn enough Frequent Player Points to get me the Ipod Nano from PokerStars. I have 8000 FPPs right now. After I earn 700 more this month, I will be promoted to a SilverStar on that site. That allows me to earn FPPs at a 150% rate for all of April. And, if I'm able to get to 4000 FPPs by the month's end, I will be able to earn them at 200% rate as a GoldStar. I figure the Ipod will be mine some time in April or May. Wish me luck.

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Nasdaq 2 Million

So, I recently read Warren Buffet's Annual Letter to Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In it, he makes an observation about the compounding effect on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I mean, the observation isn't anything earth-shattering, but I personally never really thought about it much, and I'd never had anyone ever point it out before.

This isn't what Buffet used as an example, but it's basically the same thing...

Today, the Nasdaq Composite Index sits at 2268.

If the Nasdaq can produce annualized gains of 7.5% up until the year 2100, then it will have compounded at that rate for approximately 94 years. And, if it is able to do so, we should see the Nasdaq Composite Index at 2,032,538 -- that's right, Nasdaq 2 Million. If the Dow was able to produce gains of that size over the same time frame, it would be sitting just shy of the 10,000,000 mark.

Mathematically obvious, but really gives you a different perspective. Anyway, thought I'd share.

Monday, March 06, 2006

Ill With A Fast Connection

Well, I've been sick. Sick all weekend, and today I went into work late. It sucks being sick. Especially when there's much left to take care of. I had planned on unpacking more stuff and cleaning up a bit, but I did not take care of even half of what I had intended to do.

The market did not help either, but I have been so out of it today I didn't even have time to check out what happened in the market today, except to see my portfolios drowned in a sea of red.

But, in better news, my internet connection is a lot faster here than at my old place. My connection measured a blazing 6Mbps downloading according to an online speed test I ran. The connection at my old place usually rated around 3.5-4Mbps. The upload speed here seems to be a bit slower, but I'm a lot less concerned with that direction of data transfer. How does your connection stack up? Find out here: DSL Reports Speed Test.

Friday, March 03, 2006

First Marblehead Update

First Marblehead (FMD) has been really surging lately. The company is showing the world that its profitability is not being affected in the way that many bears were predicting. As a result, the stock continues on a strong upward path. The great thing is that there are still a ton of shares shorted.

Here are the latest numbers as of Feb 28, 2006 from the NYSE:

FMD
Shares Short - Jan 31, 2006 - 12,999,664
Shares Short - Feb 28, 2006 - 14,597,891
Avg Daily Volume - 659,564

The bears have continued to short the stock, increasing their short positions by about 12% in the last month. This brings the short ratio to 21.2. Over 21 days of average volume trade just to cover the short shares! Very dangerous to short a stock with such a high ratio. If you ever decide to short such a stock, you better be damn sure you're right. If the company continues to move higher and show good news, the shorts will be squeezed hard. This squeezing effect is probably happening now.

Tom Brown, an amazing financial services analyst, has been very bullish on FMD in the last year.

Links to Tom Brown's FMD articles can be found here:

Oct 12, 2005: The Farther It Falls, the More Attractive It Becomes - FMD at $23.25
Nov 3, 2005: A Huge Overreaction - FMD at $25
Dec 8, 2005: Bears On The Run - FMD at $32.75
Dec 15, 2005: A Positive Not A Negative - FMD at $28.75
Dec 19, 2005: The Mystery Of Biv930 - FMD at $29.50
Dec 21, 2005: Listening To the Education Lenders - FMD at $31
Jan 6, 2006: Just Askin' - FMD at $32
Feb 9, 2006: Looking Ahead With First Marblehead - FMD at $36.50
Feb 23, 2006: More Partners, More Services, More Deals - FMD at $36.75

Today... FMD sits at $41.75. I fully expect the short squeeze to continue. Gotta love this great move to the upside.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Deb Shops: A Small Cap Teen Retailer

I regularly run a few stock screens, and Deb Shops (DEBS) has found its way through the screen on more than one occasion. I figured it was time I started taking a much deeper look at the company. After a quick glance, it looks like a reasonable company for investment.

The company was first founded in 1932 under the name Joy Hosiery by the Weiner and Rounick families. The families currently hold two key spots on the executive management team, and still own over two-thirds of the company. As of their most recent 10-Q filing, the company operates 319 DEB stores, 19 Tops n' Bottoms stores, and 3 outlet stores for clearance and slow moving inventory.

My main concerns at this point is that their sales per square foot number is not so strong and they don't look like they are expanding rapidly. Quick back of the envelope calculations reveal that they generate approximately $160 in sales per square foot annually. Compare this with American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) that produce roughly $400 in sales per square foot. DEBS has not had any significant increase in number of stores in the last couple of years.

Their balance sheet looks fine, but as the GZA of 12th Street pointed out, they paid out a special dividend of $6/share last year. This suggests that they don't have a better use for their cash, which is a slight negative in my book. They do continue to pay out a quarterly dividend that works out to a yield of over 1.6%.

All this said, the company does look like it should be worth more despite its somewhat high Price/Sales ratio of 1.4. Its margins are quite a bit stronger than its closest competitor, Charlotte Russe (CHIC). Also, the company flies under the investment radar with roughly 20,000 shares exchanging hands each day. If the company continues to operate as it has recently and continues to grow its EPS, potentially strong share price appreciation could follow.

More research to be done... they have an earnings conference call on the morning of March 9. Not sure if I will take a bite before the earnings call or not. Maybe no position will be established at all, but I just wanted to throw my thoughts out there about DEBS.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Today's Market Movers

Yesterday, the market handed me a sizeable loss. Today, it was completely different.

Today's big mover was American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS). It was added to the Long-Term Portfolio on December 30, and reported here. Their earnings were released this morning, and they were solid. In addition, the company provided stronger than expected guidance in the next quarter.

Another major mover today was Form Factor (FORM), a position I picked up about a month ago, and reported here. No major headline news of any sort I am aware of that moved the stock today, but it's a company that is still not completely on the investor radar. The company has a lot of promise and has shown to have efficient operations. If it continues to move strongly, I may trim my position, and take some profits.

And, finally... where is Womper? He has been a long-time reader of the blog, and he is primarily interested in the stock stuff. He told me that he took on a good sized position in AEOS, so he is probably smiling right now.
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