Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Earnings Roulette

Pretty steep mid-day sell off in the market today. Too bad I didn't hold onto any Lehman (LEH) shorts. I only fooled around a little with small shorts over the past few trading days, but didn't make a killing or anything.

Anyway, since I'm in the gambling mood...

Picked up a small piece (tiny, actually) of Guess? (GES) at 37.98 ahead of today's earnings announcement. I believe there's a fair chance that it will move higher just based on the current pessimistic view. I would think that even a neutral report would push it higher, but I obviously don't feel that strongly about this hence the size of the trade.

Current estimates are for $0.46 on revs of $451.6MM in Q1, and $0.47 on $456.3MM revs in Q2.

If this turns out to be a J. Crew (JCG) earnings call, then I lose... simple as that.

--- Edit #1 ---

Looks like GES came in well ahead of the Q1 estimates. $0.51 EPS on $465.7MM. Also, it seems that their guidance is in line for Q2.

Shares are trading above $40 now. So, barring a disaster on the actual call, looks like I'll be getting out of this one for a small, but decent, gain.

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