Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Streak Ends At Eight

Well, all good things come to an end. I was on an 8 session live poker winning streak for the year, and well, I finally got hosed. What sucks is that I could have walked away a small winner, but instead I gave myself a target that if I hit I'd leave. Things went downhill and I never recovered.

Here are two pretty big hands where I lost a good chunk of money. The game is $5-200 spread limit... I've got KK, and my opponents had QQ and Q8c. I had both of them covered, and I managed to get all of our money in on a JcTx6x flop. The turn brings a 9, and I was left drawing to a 1-outer, which missed as expected. At least I put my money in good.

I put the hand into a poker calculator, and it looks like I was roughly a 75% favorite. Q8c had 20% equity, and QQ had the remaining 5%.

The other hand I had what I thought was a strong read on a bluffer. I'm sitting on KJ, and the flop brings KT5. I basically check-call a medium-sized bet against the Mr. Overplay Tons of Hands and Habitual Bluffer. The turn brings an 8, and I go ahead and check call a decent sized bet. I figure I'd let him hang himself. The plan was to lead out on any non-scary river. The river comes an offsuit 4, and I bet out and he raises me for the rest of his chips (not that many at this point). I call and he tables 84. Now, it's easy to say that I misplayed the hand horribly, and maybe it's true. But, it's still a really, really sick running beat.

Well, the Market God got pretty pissed at the Poker God after that hand. So, he decided to give the portfolio a nice boost today. Yay for the market to help ease the pain of sick beats.

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