Wednesday, July 05, 2006

A Pascal's Wager of Sorts

So, North Korea fired off some test missiles... shook up the markets a bit. Their nuclear ambitions might one day be realized, and maybe they'll use their newly acquired nuclear power to do some really nasty stuff.

Anyway, I was thinking about this a little bit last night before I went to bed. Say that in the future, North Korea (or some other nuke-enabled nation) threatens the U.S. and the rest of the world, which in turn causes a collapse in the financial markets. Then, it would seem that you should be going nuts and buy heavily into equities or any other investment vehicles that suffered devastating declines due to the nuclear threats.

Just as Pascal laid out in his faith-related decision matrix, the decision matrix for global nuclear devastation is similar.

If the nuclear threat goes away for whatever reason, then the financial markets should recover in a large way, which would benefit those who invested in a collapsed market. If the nuclear threats eventually lead to a truly global-scale nuclear war, which would result in armageddon, then you've really lost nothing, since you'd be dead or you'd be living in a world that is for the most part, dead. Even ownership of gold or maybe even water would not be honored. The guy with the gun pointing at your head would be the ultimate consumer... surely, not you (unless you had the gun of course).

Just a random thought.

No comments: