1-4-24 Simulation

So, I've written some simple simulation code for the 1-4-24 game. If you're not familiar with it, see this old post: 1-4-24 Dice Game.

Edit: I found a bug in my code, so I've updated the simulation results.
Edit #2: I found another bug in my code, and so I've updated the results again. And, added ran a couple other strategies just to see results.

I ran an initial simulation with a simple default strategy as follows:

1) Always keep 1 and 4 if you don't already have them.
2) Always keep 6 if you already have both a 1 and a 4.
3) If you didn't keep anything in the current roll (1/4/6 as per Rules #1 and #2) , then keep a single die (the highest valued one).

Score	Frequency	PDF	CDF
Not Qualified	4324214	(4.32%)	(100.00%)
4	0	(0.00%)	(95.68%)
5	11	(0.00%)	(95.68%)
6	143	(0.00%)	(95.68%)
7	1094	(0.00%)	(95.68%)
8	5670	(0.01%)	(95.67%)
9	21906	(0.02%)	(95.67%)
10	75295	(0.08%)	(95.65%)
11	222711	(0.22%)	(95.57%)
12	562945	(0.56%)	(95.35%)
13	1239852	(1.24%)	(94.79%)
14	2489387	(2.49%)	(93.55%)
15	4420645	(4.42%)	(91.06%)
16	6855657	(6.86%)	(86.64%)
17	9436721	(9.44%)	(79.78%)
18	11863564	(11.86%)	(70.34%)
19	14150677	(14.15%)	(58.48%)
20	13048294	(13.05%)	(44.33%)
21	11259056	(11.26%)	(31.28%)
22	8955723	(8.96%)	(20.02%)
23	6549697	(6.55%)	(11.07%)
24	4516738	(4.52%)	(4.52%)

Here are results for a different strategy. Based on these results, it seems superior in most cases -- one case where it would not be superior is if you need only to score 15 to win (the following strategy hits 15+ 85% of the time while the previously described default strategy gets you there 91% of the time).

Evaluate the dice in the following sorted order: (1+4), 6, 5, 3, 2

1) Always keep 1 and 4 if you don't already have them.
2) Always keep 6 if you already have both a 1 and a 4.
3) If you have 2 or fewer dice left to consider, then keep a 5.
4) If you have only one die left to consider, then keep a 4. (Basically, expected value of a single roll is 3.5. You are 50% to do worse than a 4, and only 33% to do better. So, keeping the 4 is best.)
5) If you didn't keep anything in the current roll (as per above rules) , then keep a single die (the highest valued one).

Score	Frequency	PDF	CDF
Not Qualified	12031334	(12.03%)	(100.00%)
4	0	(0.00%)	(87.97%)
5	14	(0.00%)	(87.97%)
6	106	(0.00%)	(87.97%)
7	746	(0.00%)	(87.97%)
8	3596	(0.00%)	(87.97%)
9	14262	(0.01%)	(87.96%)
10	49197	(0.05%)	(87.95%)
11	147225	(0.15%)	(87.90%)
12	372987	(0.37%)	(87.75%)
13	821681	(0.82%)	(87.38%)
14	1633170	(1.63%)	(86.56%)
15	2888930	(2.89%)	(84.93%)
16	4484273	(4.48%)	(82.04%)
17	6258644	(6.26%)	(77.55%)
18	9710872	(9.71%)	(71.29%)
19	11806824	(11.81%)	(61.58%)
20	11650430	(11.65%)	(49.78%)
21	11174701	(11.17%)	(38.13%)
22	12093475	(12.09%)	(26.95%)
23	10505528	(10.51%)	(14.86%)
24	4352005	(4.35%)	(4.35%)

Here's the 'go for broke' strategy, where you are going for 24 only. This means that you are going to keep all 6's (up to 4) and keep 1 and 4 as they present themselves. This strategy is forced if someone before you had gotten 24, and so you need specifically 24 to tie.

Score	Frequency	PDF	CDF
Not Qualified	14806947	(14.81%)	(100.00%)
4	1	(0.00%)	(85.19%)
5	9	(0.00%)	(85.19%)
6	117	(0.00%)	(85.19%)
7	728	(0.00%)	(85.19%)
8	3590	(0.00%)	(85.19%)
9	14230	(0.01%)	(85.19%)
10	49667	(0.05%)	(85.17%)
11	146853	(0.15%)	(85.12%)
12	374034	(0.37%)	(84.98%)
13	821225	(0.82%)	(84.60%)
14	1625200	(1.63%)	(83.78%)
15	2859193	(2.86%)	(82.16%)
16	4400751	(4.40%)	(79.30%)
17	6108761	(6.11%)	(74.90%)
18	9339354	(9.34%)	(68.79%)
19	11297706	(11.30%)	(59.45%)
20	11116484	(11.12%)	(48.15%)
21	10652890	(10.65%)	(37.04%)
22	11547947	(11.55%)	(26.38%)
23	10035266	(10.04%)	(14.83%)
24	4799047	(4.80%)	(4.80%)

Ireland, Part 2: Kilkenny

Continued from Ireland, Part 1: Dublin.

So, we took off for Kilkenny from Dublin in the morning. This decision more or less established our itinerary, as we'd be taking a clockwise path circling the South and West of Ireland. The drive to Kilkenny was a short one, perhaps an hour and a half or so. One thing to mention about the roads/highways in Ireland is that they are in amazingly good shape. And, based on some of the warning signs, it seems that their drivers must be accustomed to their pristine condition. There would be signs that would inform you of hidden dips that were forthcoming. Moments later you would basically pass over the slightest unevenness in the pavement... and, that's the dip. Crazy.

Well, we get to Kilkenny, and we find parking in a lot somewhere along the River Nore. Oops, I mean, we found parking in a car park, which is the term used in a number of countries including Ireland. We walk along the river a bit and notice that there are signs warning you that stealing a lifesaver is tantamount to stealing a life. Maybe drowning is a common problem there, I don't know.

River Nore

Eventually, we make it into the heart of town, and we find their tourist office to get some help booking a hotel in Cork City for the night, as we were only planning to stick around Kilkenny for the day. We took care of everything, and we learned that due to the May Day bank holiday, the main tourist attractions had limited hours, but they didn't prevent us from being able to check them out.

We walk around the city to pass the time, and we notice that Ireland sure has a lot of bookmakers. I think we saw several in Kilkenny, and we saw a crapton of them in Dublin. It's just not something I'm used to, but from conversations with locals during my trip, I hear they love to bet on sports. At some point, we end up at ... to have a drink as we wait for our first tourist spot, the Kilkenny Castle, to open its doors.

Ladbrokes Bookmaker

So, we get there and sure enough, it's a castle. That's a relief, I was thinking it was going to be another pseudo-castle experience. I thought the castle was pretty cool and worth checking out. Unfortunately, they did not allow any photography, and my recollection sucks. I do remember there was a giant room full of portraits, and if I recall, you could also observe an art restoration person at work in the back of the room. Of the many rooms, some of them had their own unique style, such as the Chinese Bedroom and the Blue Bedroom.

Kilkenny Castle

Kilkenny Castle Close-up

Afterward, we went off to grab some grub at Langton's, which was a restaurant within a pub. That's what it felt like anyway. I was not all that impressed. My food wasn't bad, but it was not anything remarkable. JC, however, really enjoyed her panini. Overall, the price wasn't too bad, so value-wise it was acceptable. To drink, we had some beer and also Bulmer's Irish Cider (exactly the same as Magner's, but branded under a different name in Ireland).

Here are a few pictures of food at Langton's.

Langton's - Crab Stuffed Mushrooms

Langton's - Panini

Langton's - Lamb and Cabbage

After the meal, we walked around some more, and we saw a restaurant called Paris, Texas. Maybe it's not that funny, but I thought it was worth taking a picture.

Paris, Texas

Okay, after we walked past Texas, we headed over to the Rothe House and Garden. This was another important tourist attraction in the city. It was a house and garden owned by the very wealthy Rothe family back in the 1600's. Inside the home were an assortment of artifacts that were unearthed on the property as well as old pieces of the original structure.

Portrait of a Rothe House Resident
(I Can't Recall His Name)

It was interesting to see everything... they even had some old newspaper clippings from way back (17th or 18th century). Here's one picture I took of commodities news.

Commodities News from Long Ago

The garden was accessible from a different part of the property, so you actually had to walk for a little bit to get to it. The weather kind of sucked, so pictures were not so nice. But, on the way to the garden, we did manage to see some Irish graffiti.

Rothe House Garden on an Ugly Day

Some Grafitti in Kilkenny

Once we were done poking around the garden, we walked around the city some more, and then we left for Cork, the second largest city in Ireland.

Some Street in Kilkenny

Stay tuned for the next installment.

Halloween Weekend

We had a blast out in Vegas. It was pretty wild and crazy, but it makes me wonder just how much crazier things get when Vegas is actually doing well. In any case, we stayed out there a day longer than usual, so at least we got in some relaxing on our final day there.

We met up with two different groups of friends that were out there the same weekend by coincidence -- we only found out about them in the couple weeks leading up it. Friday night was fun, as we went out drinking and dancing at the side bar of the Wasted Space nightclub. There were lots of wild people ready to party dressed scantily and slut-worthily just as you would expect from Vegas.

The next night a high school friend of mine, JC, I all found ourselves at a super low-limit poker table at the Mandalay Bay. It's a lot of fun when you play well below your usual limits. I got to splash around a lot while doing my pre-party drinking. Basically, I get to enjoy myself rather than be forced to play seriously.

Finally for Halloween night, we started off at a bar at the MGM and eventually made our way over to Studio 54 once it got less crazy. Apparently, one of the "Girls Next Door" stars (Holly Madison) was the host for the night, and when she left things got less hectic. It was a good thing to wait, since I don't think I was really up for fighting crowds to enjoy the night.

Both JC and I dressed up as vampires, and surprisingly, it was not as popular a costume as we were initially fearing. The costumes worked well, and I had my fair share of randoms that wanted me to bite them, etc. But, those stories will have to stay in Vegas... it's the rule after all.

On Sunday night, JC and I went to watch the Cirque du Soleil show, Zumanity. I had seen Mystere and O before, and I would say that Zumanity would rank third of the three. But, it was still highly entertaining -- definitely not something you should go see if you're conservative and opposed to adult conversations and themes. While many of the acts were impressive, I was not as big a fan of the music as I have been of the other shows.

Later on, we ate at an overpriced Japanese restaurant at Planet Hollywood called Koi. The quality was perfectly fine. I felt the salmon was par at best, but most everything else I had was decent quality, but not worth the prices they were charging. After our meal though, as we were about to take off, a nearby table blurted out that they saw a rat. Turns out that JC also spotted it. We did not try to get any refund or anything... seems like poor form when we were very much done with our meal. Still pretty gross though. In short, I wouldn't recommend Koi to anyone.

Since I'm too lazy to put up pictures of the food at Koi, I'll share a picture I took of some non-alcoholic Berry Fizz drink that JC at some cafe in one of the hotels.



Then, on Monday we went over to the downtown area and grabbed a lot of souvenir chips for JC's collection. Also, we did some gambling, but overall it was a more relaxing day of recovery. I also have a silly story about getting tricked to tell.

So, we are walking out of the El Cortez and we walk towards the intersection, and we decide to turn around since there were no more hotels in the direction that we were walking. A cop then tells us to halt and tells us that we had been tagged for jaywalking by a police car. We are in disbelief, because we hadn't even set foot on the street let alone jaywalked. The officer then talks on his radio saying that he has secured the suspects, and as we verbalized (loudly) our incredulity, he started laughing and said, "I got you guys." He sure did.

The End.

Halloween in Vegas, Badugi, and Sports Betting Update

The bad news is that I've been incredibly busy at work recently. The good news is that I get to party it up a bit this coming Halloween weekend as JC and I are meeting up with a few friends in Vegas. We'll be dressed up, but there aren't any hard plans regarding where we'll be going. On Sunday, we're going to see Zumanity, the adult-themed Cirque du Soleil show. It's been a long time since I've seen a show in Vegas, and JC has never been to one... so hope it's a good one.

Now, it's time to talk briefly about this poker game called Badugi. PokerStars has it available online for as low as 25 cent/50 cent stakes. I've mostly been playing 0.25/0.50 through $1/2. Anyway, it's a lowball triple draw game where you try to make a badugi, which is a 4 card hand with 4 different suits and 4 different ranks. A 4-Card Badugi will beat any 3-card hand will beat any 2-card hand, etc.

For example, a Jh 5d 3c Ah is a 3-card hand: Ah 3c and 5d play. The Jh won't play since it copies the heart. This would beat someone who held 7d 6c 2s Ac, as they would play Ac 2s 7d for a 7-high 3-card hand. Any badugi, say Kh Qc 8d 7s, would beat both of these 3-card hands.

Well, to make a long story short, I've been semi-hooked on this seemingly simple game. The players at the lowest limits are horrible... at least that's what it seems so far. I don't think I'm simply getting lucky though it's certainly possible given that I haven't put in a ton of hands yet. I am up roughly 120 bets so far... we'll see if this trend continues.

And, a quick update on the sports betting. Basically, I'm very close to break-even after 81 bets. I'm up a whopping $25.20 with an average wager of $17. So, it's not good, but I guess it's not horrible either. Hehe.

Baltimore and Sports Betting

I was in Baltimore recently for business, and the trip started off horribly. First, I lost my phone at the airport (it was my fault, I set it down on my roller bag and it fell off when I walked off). Then, I hopped onto a hotel shuttle only to learn that there were 3 hotels in the Baltimore Area with the same name.

I lucked out on both points -- the hotel offered to shuttle me over to my hotel for a fixed rate that was well below what a cab would have cost and someone working at one of the airport restaurants found my phone, which I then received the next day (I threw him a twenty in case anyone was curious.

Both training and the meetings I had while I was out there were really productive, so that was good. But, after all the day's activities, you can't just stay cooped up in a hotel. You've got to go out and have a little bit of fun too.

I went to several places during the week. On my final night there, I went out with a college buddy of mine (good ol' T-Bag). Anyway, I highly recommend two of the bars that I checked out: Brewer's Art (featuring their very strong, but delicious beers) and Pub Dog (super cheap $2 beers if you buy them 2 at a time). Also, went to Nick's Fish House for their Happy Hour on one of the nights too -- that place was alright, but I much preferred the other two spots.

Here is a pic of the harbor and also one of a water taxi that I took to work on one of the days. It's definitely not practical, as it took us about 45 minutes longer than a cab ride, since it wasn't a direct route. We had to get off and walk a fair distance to another pickup spot to catch another water taxi that would ultimately take us to our destination.



And, now, a quick blurb about my recent restart of sports betting with a similar experimental meta-system as I had tried in the past. For those who aren't aware, I was sports betting using a meta-system that started off great and then hit a bad streak that caused me to pull the plug at my break-even point.

Anyway, the amount I'm betting is pretty small (average bet has been $17.53). After 21 bets, the record stands at 12-9 for +$44.24. We'll see if this experiment is more successful than the last. Either way, it's a fun experience and (hopefully) should not cost too much if it ends badly.

I might as well put up the current bets that have already been locked in.

Date	Sport	Game	Bet	Price	Wager
10/8/2009	NCAA FB	Nebraska - Missouri	Nebraska -3.0	-110	$16.50
10/8/2009	MLB	Boston - LA Angels	Boston Win ML	-110	$11.00
10/9/2009	NCAA FB	LA Tech - Nevada	LA Tech +10.5	-110	$22.00
10/10/2009	NCAA FB	Alabama - Mississippi	Mississippi +5.0	-110	$22.00
10/10/2009	NCAA FB	Auburn - Arkansas	Arkansas +2.5	-110	$11.00

Win or lose, I'll try my best to update progress every now and then.

That's all for now.

Las Vegas and Le Cirque

Last weekend, I was out in Vegas for our annual trip during March Madness. A bunch of the usual group was able to make it, and there were some new faces this time as well. All in all, when the various groups were accounted for, there were around 12 of us.

Before I even got there, I had already lost $50 betting on Memphis. They got spanked. I figured I better try and win some back, so during our first meal together, we played some game where we'd choose a category and then a person and then make over/under bets on how many from that category the person could name without too long a lull. Some categories were famous aviators, serial killers, NFL quarterbacks, etc. I won a few bucks mostly betting against a certain someone. Not all of it was his fault... at one point, Mr. Tarek set a ridiculous line of 30.5 for the category of NHL players when the person doing the naming wasn't a hockey fan at all (I think he ended up naming 6 or 7 total).

There was a fair bit of negative EV gambling to start off the night. The first night Paul (some of you know him as Womper) and I ran good and started the trip up a fair bit of money. Paul was able to win a quick $750 at the quarter blackjack table as he pressed his bets a few times and managed to go 13 hands without a loss (there were some pushes, of course).

I did alright playing blackjack, but my big winner was playing Let It Ride. I was mostly playing $10, but then decided to go for $20 since it was getting late. So, I've got 3 $20's out there and I pick up K55. I pull a bet back, and 4th street brings a K. With a sure winner, the last two $20's stay put, and the river is a 5 for a boat. That paid a lovely 11:1 on $40, and since I was actually up a fair bit already before that hand, I was able to finish the night solidly ahead.

The next day was mostly recovery, as we were all up pretty late and indulging too much in the 'free' booze. At night though, we had our nice dinner at Le Cirque over at the Bellagio. Seven of us participated in what would be one of the best Vegas meals I've ever had.

Here are some pictures.

Mint Gazpacho with Bacon and Mushroom Foam Topping

Burgundy Snails in Garlic Herb Butter

Terrine of Foie Gras

Brioche to go with the Foie Gras Terrine

Risotto Topped with Truffles

Duck Magret

Sea Bass Wrapped with Crunchy Potatoes

Filet of Beef and Sautéed Foie Gras

Crème Brûlée

Chocolate Soufflé

Lemon Soufflé

Pistachio Cream and Chocolate Cake

Yuzu Cream and Strawberry Sorbet in Ice Bowl

Strawberry Sorbet, Foam, and Gelatin with Chocolate Bits

Strawberry Souffle and Sorbet

Plate of Goodies

I am a bit too lazy to write more, but it goes without really saying that the food was outstanding, and the service was great. We were all able to taste each of the different desserts, as we played a game where the various plates got passed all around the table. Also, all of us got a taste of the risotto with truffles... we purchased 4 orders, which they be split up into 7 bowls.

We had a nice view of the Bellagio Fountain show, and an unexpected bonus was that during dinner, we were able to see the Las Vegas Strip go dark for Earth Hour. Here's actually a pretty cool page showing some before and after pictures from around the world. And, we did see one of the Dallas Cowboys at the restaurant, but none of us really knew who he was. All we know was that he was a very, very large man.

Anyway, later on that night, a few of us (including the Tiffster herself) hit up Tao. The lines were super long, but her boyfriend (the smooth talking fellow that he is) was able to work some magic and allow us to skip the line. Tao was pretty nice and all, but I wasn't a big fan of horrendously overpriced drinks ($16 Red Bull Vodkas -- no thanks).

Fortunately, we were able to strike up a conversation with this one girl from Hawaii who was out there partying with a big party. She was super cool and hooked us up with a couple cups full of vodka, which we could then mix with whatever we could buy at the bar. So, that made things a bit better. There were also some mostly naked women with nothing on but pasties that were floating around in these tubs, and a lot of the drink servers were wearing nothing but lingerie... sort of reminds me of the attire seen at Vietnamese coffee shops.

After the club, a few of us played some craps, and we were quite fortunate to be at a table with this guy with his lucky shirt. He was the shooter for 15-20 minutes making 8 points. So, let's just say that we were all big winners. This more than wiped out some smaller losses I took earlier in the day from additional -EV gambling. Gotta love being at the table when the shooter has a golden arm.

The next day I played some low 1/2 NL poker, and won $240. NL isn't really my game, and nothing too exciting happened. The two biggest hands I had were flopped sets. I was able to get all of my money in with TT on a monotone QT3 board when a guy with the Ace flush draw attempted a semi-bluff. I called and did not get unlucky.

My other set, I should not have won as much as I did. I had 33 and the flop came AK3 rainbow. Somehow A7d 3-bet me on the flop and called my final bet that put him all-in. I guess I really shouldn't be surprised by this, as donks will be donks.

And, that's all I've got to say about this most recent Vegas trip. For those that went, if any of you want pictures, let me know. Check you all later.

End of Sports Betting Experiment

Well, it was fun and somewhat educational while it lasted, but my sports betting experiment is over as of today. The meta-system suffered a bad streak going a miserable 25-39-0. The final tally is that I'm up 0.9 units, and sides/totals won at an unprofitable 51.2%.

Now, I'm confident that the idea of a meta-system that effectively weights 'winning' sports bettors has merit. However, the problem is an obvious one... figuring out which sports bettors are winners is probably just as difficult as handicapping the games.

I will probably give it another go in the future, but for now I'm going to stop, as it started taking up a bit too much of my time. At least I got to make use of the TV a lot more, heh. Another thing is that if I do give it another go, I will probably go tighten up my criteria so as not to put on so many plays each day. I think I was averaging 6 plays a day. Also, it seems that playing only the absolutely best rated plays and flat betting them would have been superior (in hindsight) seeing as there was still a little bit of profit even with only 51.2% win rate.

Anyway, that's all for now.

Sports Betting Update

Well, I guess it's that time again. Since the previous update, I haven't fared so well. I've put in over 100 more bets, and have actually shown a slight loss since that checkpoint. I could have reported some small gain, except that today my meta-system went a disastrous 3-6 for a loss of 2.6 units.

I don't have much time to put up fancy graphs, etc. But, here's a quick breakdown.

Straight Bets for Sides and Totals have won 52.9%, which isn't all that great, but at least it's not in losing territory.

Sides: 98-96-2
Totals: 22-11-0
Overall: 129-129-3 (includes ML, Combinations, Teasers)

ROI: 3.2%
Net: +8.3 units (where a unit = average bet size)
Change from previous checkpoint: -2.9 units.

ML Net: -0.9 unit
Combinations + Teasers: +0.3 units

Again, the total amount I'm experimenting with is incredibly small. But, even so, I get pretty excited about watching the games and sweating out close ones. I guess it's been fun. Anyway, I haven't reduced my betting sizes yet, but I am thinking about it.

That's all for now.

Sports Betting Experiment Update

Here's the 100 game update for my sports betting experiment.

Overall: 54-49-2 (includes combinations, teasers, moneyline, etc.)
Sides: 41-36-1
Totals: 10-5-0
ML: 0-3-0
2-bet combinations: 3-4-1
Teasers: 0-1-0

Using average bet size as a single unit, we're at +11.2 units, and an ROI of 10.68%. The original bankroll for the experiment has nearly tripled at +177% over 23 days of wagering. But, it was a really small amount to begin with, since I'm not ready to put 'real' money on this sort of thing... yet.

Here's a quick chart to show the progress.


Prior to starting my experiment, I said to myself that if I can get 10% or more ROI after 100 games, I would increase my bet size. So, I think going forward I'll step up my bet sizes by 50%, and go back down if I suffer any serious string of losses.

I guess that's all for now.

Have a Happy New Year's, everyone. And, remember not to get too sloppy tonight. It was a rough 2008, but it's done and over with now. See you all next year.

Staycation and the Holidays

I'm on Day 3 of my staycation. I really can't remember the last time I took a break from work and stayed in without any plans. Last week I was in SoCal, which was fun, but now it's time to just relax and do nothing.

I guess I did want to mention a couple games I played when I was away last week. One game was called Blokus. It's a neat game where you try to rid yourselves of your tetris-like pieces by placing them on the board in turn. The rules are simple. Each piece (except for your first piece) needs to connect to one of your other pieces by a corner and no actual flat edges can touch. Turns out there's a ton of strategy in the game, and I found it to be a lot of fun despite getting crushed both times I played it.

Another game we played was called Rumis. This one I didn't like as much, but it seemed that others preferred it. It's a weird three dimensional tower building game where you take turns adding to the tower with various building code restrictions. The object is to have the most of your color exposed from a bird's eye view of the structure. I also got crushed in this game.

Anyway, I'm going to just kick back and do nothing. I've still been keeping up with my sports betting experiment. I'll report back soon once I reach 100 total bets made.

Have a Happy New Year's if I don't blog before then.

Sports Betting

Some of you know that I've been dabbling a bit with sports betting. Basically, I've come up with a meta-system, which unfortunately still has a fair bit of subjective influences. It's a meta-system because it is not based on actually handicapping games, but based on the weighted effectiveness of handicappers.

I figure this is not too much different than determining which Wall Street analysts are worth listening to, and which ones are full of hot air when it comes to their recommendations of certain stocks.

Anyway, I didn't want to share this until I had more bets under my belt. The sample size is way too small for now, but I've made 49 bets so far. The meta-system has worked out alright thus far. At this point I have no real confidence that it's good, bad, or useless. I guess if it was bad, then it would actually be good as you could always bet against it. If we were to assume that the average bet size was a unit, then after 49 bets, the system is up 10.85 units with bets ranging from about 0.75 to 1.5 units.

(Win, Loss)
All Bets (27, 22)
Sides (17, 17)
Totals (8, 1)
ML (0, 2)
Combo [2-bet parlays] (2, 2)

I've been keeping a spreadsheet of all bets, and I've been fairly diligent about posting up the picks each day before the games have been played. If anyone is interested in taking a look, please let me know, and I'll share the Google spreadsheet with you. Would also like to know if this is just really a stupid idea of mine too, if that's your opinion.

Well, I guess that's all for now. I am actually taking time off work until the new year. Going to head to SoCal for a week and then do nothing (except, maybe play some poker) the week after. Hope everyone enjoys the holidays.

Vegas

I'm still dead tired, and I'm just about to head in to the office. Surprisingly, I played zero poker over the weekend. Two of my friends played in the $1500 NL WSOP Event (the one that Gaamblor took 5th in... good job, btw). One of them busted out early running into Aces twice (his bustout hand was QQ vs AA). The other one suffered a bad beat with about a hundred or so players to the money (2700 players to start down to about 400, and 270 spots paid). He had an average stack and re-raised all-in with KK. He was called by a slightly bigger stack's AK, and he lost. Gross, but that's poker.

I lost a chunk playing Texas Hold'em Bonus... ya, ya, it's -EV, but the house edge isn't gigantic. All in all it was a fun trip. Barber and I ended up in a really nice room at the Wynn with a view and all. Unfortunately, there was only one King bed since they ran out of the Queen rooms, and so they rolled in another bed for him. Managed to make it out to the pool for a change as well.

Anyway, here are some pictures from the weekend with plenty of food, as you can imagine. Five of us went to dinner at Alizé atop the Palms for a 7-course meal.

Corner Room at the Wynn

Golf Course View

Wynn Pool

Lump Crab Stuffed Piquillo Pepper

Spinach and Black Truffle Salad
and Duck Confit Topped with Quail Egg

Pan Seared Foie Gras

Dover Sole

Palate Cleanser - Passion Fruit Sorbet

Veal Medallions
with Sweetbread in Fondue and Country Ham

Three Cheeses - Manchego, Blue, and Gouda

Dessert Trio - Banana Cream and Cake,
Black Cherry Cheesecake, and Chocolate Bar

Weekend in Tahoe

Over the weekend, I found myself in North Lake Tahoe (Incline Village) with a sharpshooter, her co-workers, and their significant others. Everything about the trip was taken care of by her company as a team reward for meeting project milestones. Sweet!

When I've gone out to that area in the past, I've pretty much been in South Lake Tahoe, where all the casinos are located. I don't typically do much skiing or snow sports, so I also rarely find myself out there during this time of the year. For those of you not in the know, there's still snow out there. It was still pretty cold with overnight lows in the high 20's.

Anyway, the sharpshooter (we'll get to why she's a sharpshooter in a minute) and I stayed at a condo with one of her co-workers and his girlfriend. A bunch of others stayed over at a semi-baller fully loaded (multiple plasma TV's, full-sized pool table, etc) five bedroom vacation house nearby. We hung out at the house a fair bit, and just drank beers and played a couple of interesting card games.

One was called Wizard, and another one was called Mü. Wizard was fun and simple. I won when we played. Mü was really complex, but it was really a fascinating game. There were 5 natural 'suits' but a 6th suit would be generated from the High and Low trumps, which would vary based on an auction process. It's a bit too complicated to explain here, but if you like strategy card games and know a few others who do as well, I think would likely enjoy the game tremendously. I tied for first in that game, which was pretty coincidental. I would imagine that it's pretty rare to end up in a tie.

Besides being lazy and staying in, we also made a quick trip out to Reno to do a tiny bit of gambling and playing carnival games at the Circus Circus Midway. One of the games at Circus Circus was a Bottle Cork Pistol game. You load up an air gun with a small cork and you'd shoot the cork at empty soda cans. You get 3 shots for a buck. She nailed 2 cans with her 3 shots and won a nice stuffed bear. I played twice, but I only managed to score 0 and 1 (good for a tiny prize). After playing that and other games for a while, we had won a small collection of stuffed animals, including two frogs.


Then, I lost $100 playing blackjack for maybe half an hour. Nothing eventful really. Up $60 at the peak, down $100 at the nadir.

And, what good is a trip without good food? On Sunday night, 11 of us went to do some fine dining at the Lone Eagle Grille. The food was fantastic, and the service was great. I finally got to try some elk, which I've been wanting to try for some time now.

Here are the food pictures...

Duck Breast with Bok Choy and Blackberry Gastrique

Saffron Clam Chowder with Crab Fritter

French Onion Soup

Elk Tenderloin with Vegetables

Buffalo Tenderloin with Foie Gras

Mud Pie

Truffles

That's it... and, now here I am still at work (but, taking a short break).