Saturday, December 20, 2008

Sports Betting

Some of you know that I've been dabbling a bit with sports betting. Basically, I've come up with a meta-system, which unfortunately still has a fair bit of subjective influences. It's a meta-system because it is not based on actually handicapping games, but based on the weighted effectiveness of handicappers.

I figure this is not too much different than determining which Wall Street analysts are worth listening to, and which ones are full of hot air when it comes to their recommendations of certain stocks.

Anyway, I didn't want to share this until I had more bets under my belt. The sample size is way too small for now, but I've made 49 bets so far. The meta-system has worked out alright thus far. At this point I have no real confidence that it's good, bad, or useless. I guess if it was bad, then it would actually be good as you could always bet against it. If we were to assume that the average bet size was a unit, then after 49 bets, the system is up 10.85 units with bets ranging from about 0.75 to 1.5 units.

(Win, Loss)
All Bets (27, 22)
Sides (17, 17)
Totals (8, 1)
ML (0, 2)
Combo [2-bet parlays] (2, 2)

I've been keeping a spreadsheet of all bets, and I've been fairly diligent about posting up the picks each day before the games have been played. If anyone is interested in taking a look, please let me know, and I'll share the Google spreadsheet with you. Would also like to know if this is just really a stupid idea of mine too, if that's your opinion.

Well, I guess that's all for now. I am actually taking time off work until the new year. Going to head to SoCal for a week and then do nothing (except, maybe play some poker) the week after. Hope everyone enjoys the holidays.

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