Monday, August 15, 2005

Weathering the Market's Storms

Been a while since I last wrote about the markets. A respite was due after that Cryptologic (CRYP) nightmare. In any case, the markets have been a bit indecisive lately. Down one day, up the next, and down again. We've pulled back a bit from our early August highs after facing higher oil prices and dissappointing results coming from both Dell and Cisco.

On the bright side, EBAY is holding its own above the $40 mark, and Synaptics (SYNA) has moved to a new closing high since its crash. Still looking for $18-20 on it. The current plan is to unload half at 18, and decide what to do with the other half based on how it trades in that range. Their VP recently picked up a quarter million dollars worth of it at $15.29 (yes, he got a better price than me, damnit!). It is usually a positive sign when an insider places a decent sized bet. Insider buying is much more useful than insider selling. There are a ton of reasons why an insider would sell stock... diversification being the main reason, but buying usually means the company is worth more. We'll see how it all turns out soon.

Just to come full circle... Today, I came across an old paper from 2001 (download here) that examines the relationship between weather and stock market returns. Not the most interesting paper, but I think their findings provide strong evidence that the market is far from efficient.

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